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New Mexico vs San Diego State Odds & Predictions: Friday Night’s Best Bets | February 16th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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We have ourselves a Mountain West Conference showdown in San Diego. The San Diego State Aztecs host the New Mexico Lobos. The last time these two faced off was back on January 13th; the Lobos put a whooping on the Aztecs 88-70. With Utah State sitting atop the Mountain West, these two teams will fight for second place in the conference. Can New Mexico come out with the season sweep over the Aztecs? Or will San Diego State get their revenge?
⚫️⚫️⚫️Next up at home is the BLACKOUT game on Friday!⚫️⚫️⚫️ pic.twitter.com/DZHe6hFNPA
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) February 15, 2024
New Mexico vs San Diego State Betting Odds
Picks in this piece are courtesy of Bovada. At Bovada, you can get great odds on all of the top college basketball matchups every day.
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Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 13-14-2 (44%) * Write-ups are ICE COLD*
(As of February 15, 2024)
Spread
New Mexico: (+5.5) (-115)
San Diego State: (-5.5) (-105)
Total
Over: 153 (-110)
Under: 153 (-110)
Moneyline
New Mexico: +190
San Diego State: -230
New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction
New Mexico guard Jaelen House reacts after hitting a 3-pointer in the second half.
The Stank:
Things that are inevitable: death, taxes, and me taking a college basketball total under. How could I not? Sure, New Mexico and San Diego State went over the total in their last meeting, but that was in New Mexico. Now, in San Diego, the pace should be a lot slower. Home teams typically dictate pace; ranked 220th in pace, the Aztecs should slow down the speedy Lobos.
Points should come at a premium in this matchup. At home this season, San Diego State is 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They excel in every category defensively; they get after rebounds, force turnovers, and block shots. Meanwhile, New Mexico has a similar defense; they are in the top 100 on the road in adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover percentage, and defensive rebounding.
Offensively, the Aztecs struggle; in their last 10 games, they are 299th in 3-point percentage, 116th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 239th in turnover percentage. On the other hand, the Lobos have a tremendous offensive unit, top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
All in all, New Mexico’s fast tempo and skilled offense are a concern, but this game will not end as high as it did a month ago. San Diego State should slow down the game’s pace, disrupting the Lobos’ offense. The Aztecs have held five of the seven top 50 schools they have faced this season under 75 points.
Under.
The number will continue to climb, so I suggest waiting and taking it when you feel most confident.
Prediction: San Diego State Wins
Pick: Under 153.0 (-110) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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