SEC Semifinals, Alabama vs Florida: Odds & Best Bets (3/15)

Buckle up! The Madness of March is in full swing as conference tournaments are wrapping up, with the full bracket being announced tomorrow. However, today we have a HUGE matchup in the SEC Tournament Semifinals as the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators go head to head after facing off just 10 days ago.

In that matchup in Tuscaloosa, the Tide were 3.5 point favorites, but ended up losing outright by 5. The total soared over as the Gators win 99-94, as Alex Condon led Florida with 27 points. Mark Sears did all he could, putting up 30 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists as the Tide came up just short. Now they are catching 3.5 points as the Gators are slightly over one possession favorites on a neutral site.

Will Alabama rally and pull off this upset? Or will the Gators chomp their way to another win and punch their ticket to the SEC Title game tomorrow?

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators: SEC Semifinals

Alex Condon was a force the last time these teams played

Matchup Information – Alabama vs Florida

• Venue & Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, TN)
• Date: Saturday, March 15th, 2025
• Tip Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Alabama +3.5 (-112)
• Florida -3.5 (-108)

Money Line

• Alabama +149
• Florida -169

Total

• Over 176 (-115)
• Under 176 (-105)

Tide Look for Revenge in Conference Semifinals

Can Alabama take down the Gators in the SEC Tournament?

We are in for a thriller tonight. These teams played to 193 points in their first matchup just 10 days ago, with a total of 178.5. Now the total is down a few points to 176, but has been bought up since opening.

According to Joe Lunardi, this is basically a play-in game for the final #1 seed. Auburn, Duke and Houston are the other top tier teams, but Alabama could overtake the Gators with a victory over them today. The question is, can they slow down that offense?

Florida shot an incredible 61.8% yesterday against the Missouri Tigers. Is that number sustainable? Probably not. But they shot nearly 50% from the field against the Tide in Tuscaloosa, and ultimately, Alabama is not equipped to slow teams down. They run and gun and try to out offense every opponent they face, and when they come across a team with a great defense AND offense, they struggle.

The Gators have been on a tear since dropping a game to Georgia. They beat #12 Texas A&M, #7 Alabama on the road, Ole Miss, and #21 Missouri. This team has won 10 of their last 11 since only scoring 44 points against Tennessee, and today I see them getting the best of Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Best Bets

Will Richard and the Gators are the most complete team in the country

Alabama vs Florida Prediction: Florida Wins & Covers, Over 174

Best Bets: Florida -3.5 (-110) BetOnline

These teams run. We know this because of the total alone. The difference is, Florida can slow teams down, Alabama can not.

They Gators rank 13th overall defensively and 4th in eFG%. We know how good they are on offense, but defensively they guard the perimeter as good as anyone. Florida is Top 100 in 3P Rate defense and 7th in 3P% defense, holding opponents to under 30%. Alabama is a team that lets it fly from deep, and when they aren’t falling, things go south quickly. They were just 9/25 at home against the Gators, and I don’t see that improving.

As for the Tide’s defense, while they are Top 25 overall and Top 40 in eFG%, they cannot force turnovers, ranking Bottom 20 in the country. On the other side, they aren’t necessarily that great at taking care of the ball either, and they might run too fast for their own good. In this matchup, I see Florida dominating like they did in the first game, and I think we will see enough possessions for them to cover this spread.

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