SMU vs Stanford: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets (3/1)

When you think of ACC Basketball, you don’t think of Duke vs North Carolina… you definitely think of SMU vs Stanford out in California. If you can’t taste my sarcasm, go ahead and read that first sentence again, because I am discussing an ACC showdown that is anything but ordinary.

Two newcomers in the conference battle it out on the opposite coast this Saturday as the Stanford Cardinal take on the SMU Mustangs. Both teams are in the top half of the ACC as it currently stands, but as far as at large bids go, the Ponies have much more to play for. SMU is still sitting as one of Joe Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” meaning every game is a “must win” to keep their tourney hopes alive.

However, Stanford could play spoiler and have been very good all year long on their home court. Can they handle the Mustangs coming into town?

SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal: Classic ACC Showdown

Maxime Raynaud puts up 20 and 11 for the Cardinal

Matchup Information – SMU vs Stanford

• Venue & Location: Maples Pavilion (Stanford, CA)
• Date: Saturday, March 1st, 2025
• Tip Off: 5:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ACC Network

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. Sign up today with promo code BNEWS for a 50% deposit bonus and $10 instantly in your account!

Spread

• SMU +1 (-125)
• Stanford -1 (+105)

Total

• Over 150.5 (-110)
• Under 150.5 (-110)

Will SMU Continue West Coast Success Without Miller?

Boopie Miller has not played since February 11th

Even without their star, the Mustangs have been very good. They have won both road games without Boopie Miller in the lineup, and overall, they play better on the road as a team.

SMU ranks 22nd overall offensively and 39th in eFG%. Those ranks improve to 21st and 9th on the road this season, while also ranking 21st in offensive rebounds. Defensively, they go from 75th overall and 31st in eFG% to 46th and 19th. This team is extremely good, even away from home, and with their tourney hopes on the line, they’ll certainly come to play. On the road this year, they’ve only lost to then #70 Butler (4th game of the year), and to then #49 North Carolina. Meanwhile, Stanford has been great at home, but have they played good competition?

The Cardinal are coming off two straight home wins, and have actually won 15/17 at home this season, only losing to Cal Poly and Wake Forest. They have only seen three Top 100 teams at home this season, and are 4-8 against Top 100 teams overall this season. Stanford already lost to SMU by 24 on the road as 7.5 point underdogs. The line is a bit fishy, but I’ll take all the bait.

SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal Best Bets

Matt Cross grabs 8.4 boards for the Mustangs

SMU vs Stanford Prediction: SMU Wins Outright, Over 150.5

Best Bets: SMU +1 (-125) BetOnline

SMU should not be an underdog in this game. It doesn’t make sense, but instead of putting on my tin foil hat, I’ll just bet the better team.

I believe Stanford’s home numbers are inflated because of who they’ve hosted. Let’s look at their conference stats. In ACC play, the Cardinal are 7th offensively, 11th in eFG%, and 8th in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. They are the absolute worst at sending their opponents to the free throw line, and they prefer to play slow. SMU is going to speed things up and force the Stanford offense to try and play keep up.

They won’t be able to. SMU’s defense is ready to roll. They’ve been out on the West Coast already, so travel is not an issue at all. Even though it is Stanford’s Senior Night and they’re in a major revenge spot, this Ponies team is the real deal and I trust them to get a much needed win on the road.

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