#2 Tennessee vs #1 Houston: Elite Eight Odds & Best Bets (3/30)

Two of the best defenses in the country go head to head as the Tennessee Volunteers and the Houston Cougars battle in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday in Indianapolis. Rick Barnes and Kelvin Sampson are two distinguished coaches, but only one will advance their squad to the Final Four and book their ticket to San Antonio.

Tennessee has taken down #15 Wofford, #7 UCLA, and #3 Kentucky on their way to this Elite Eight matchup. They’ve allowed an average of just 61.7 points per game in the tournament, down over a point from their 62.9 season average, which ranks Top 10 in the nation. However, Houston ranks 1st in that category.

The Cougars beat #16 SIUE, #8 Gonzaga, and #4 Purdue so far this tournament. They have won 16 straight games and lead the country in points per game allowed at 58.5. They’ve given up just over that number in the Big Dance so far, and defenses are certainly a focus of each of these teams. Who will cut down the nets and head to Texas next weekend?

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#2 Tennessee Volunteers vs #1 Houston Cougars: Elite Eight Preview

Matchup Information – Tennessee vs Houston

• Venue & Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
• Date: Sunday, March 30th, 2025
• Tip Off: 2:20pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Tennessee +3 (-110)
• Houston -3 (-110)

Money Line

• Tennessee +136
• Houston -156

Total

• Over 123.5 (-112)
• Under 123.5 (-108)

Barnes and Sampson Go Head to Head in Indy

Both of these defenses are top tier. And by that, I mean ABSOLUTELY elite.

Houston Cougars Defense

• Adj. Def. Eff: 1st (L10: 1st)
• effective FG%: 4th (L10: 9th)
• TO Rate: 20th (L10: 69th)

Tennessee Volunteers Defense

• Adj. Def. Eff: 3rd (L10: 23rd)
• effective FG%: 2nd (L10: 83rd)
• FT Rate D: 73rd (L10: 189th)

We have two incredible defenses and two very slow offenses which is why we have such a low total in this game. The Volunteers are 345th in the country (Bottom 20) in possessions per game, while Houston is 360th (Bottom 5). Both offenses will take up as much of the shot clock as they please before finding a decent look. The Cougars take care of the ball but struggle to get to the free throw line, while the Volunteers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Plus, Tennessee’s offense has been playing so much better over their last 10 games, breaking into the Top 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and FT Rate offense.

I don’t expect either team to turn the ball over that often, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if we only see 62-65 possessions in this game. Tennessee shoots a lot of threes, and makes over 8 per game as a team. They only hit 5 against Kentucky, but went for double digits in the two opening rounds. Houston has only allowed 10+ threes from an opponent three times this season, as they rank Top 20 in 3P% defense. While I do trust Tennessee’s offense as a whole slightly more, defense will rule this ball game.

#2 Tennessee Volunteers vs #1 Houston Cougars Best Bets

Tennessee vs Houston Prediction: Houston Wins, Tennessee Covers, Under 123.5

Best Bets: J’wan Roberts 6+ Rebounds/Houston ML Parlay (+125) BetOnline

Look, I endorse Houston on the ML if you want to pay the juice, and I also approve Roberts for 7+ boards at plus money or up to whatever juice you’re comfortable playing. Personally I think both happen, but I’ll play this two teamer instead.

Houston is the truth this year, and even though they may be a bit undersized, they were near perfect in the Big 12, which is plenty tough of a conference. I see them continuing to find creative ways to put the ball in the hoop while also playing stellar defense.

As for Roberts, he’s been a force since fully returning. In his last two games, he’s averaged 34.5 minutes and 10 rebounds per game, up from his season averages of 30.5 and 6.4. The Cougars are undersized, so Roberts will need to step up and clean up the glass against a Top 20 offensive rebounding team. I trust Houston to be able to contest shots and force misses, leading to more opportunities for Roberts to grab some boards.

He’s had 6+ in 22/34 games (64.7%) and has had 7+ in 14 games as well. Roberts clears 6+ rebounds in 16/22 games where he’s seen at least 30 minutes, snagging 7+ in 12 of those contests. Assuming he doesn’t get into early foul trouble (0 personal in 3/L4, hasn’t fouled out all year), then he will certainly be on the court plenty. Give me the Cougars and Roberts to advance to San Antonio and play next weekend in the Final Four.

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