#10 SMU vs #4 Penn State: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | December 21, 2024

The 11-2 Penn State Nittany Lions host the 11-2 SMU Mustangs in a compelling first-round College Football Playoff showdown. Both teams are looking to rebound from tough conference championship losses and prove they belong in the national title conversation. With high-powered offenses and efficient defenses on both sides, this game has all the makings of a tightly contested battle.

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College football 2024: 65-56-3 (+2.55 Units)

College football Conference Championships results: 5-1 (+3.96 Units)

#10 SMU vs #4 Penn State Odds

#10 SMU vs #4 Penn State odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Football games.

Spread:

SMU: +8.5 (-110)

Penn State: -8.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 53 (-113)

Under: 53 (-107)

Moneyline

SMU: +275

Penn State: -330

#10 SMU vs #4 Penn State Bet

One of the more intriguing matchups in the first round of the College Football Playoffs features the 11-2 Penn State Nittany Lions hosting the 11-2 SMU Mustangs. Both teams are coming off tough conference championship losses and are eager to put those defeats behind them as they set their sights on a National Championship.

Personally, I am struggling to commit to either side in this game, and the total does not stand out. Both teams have offenses capable of keeping pace with one another. We saw Penn State’s ability to match a high-powered offense like Oregon’s in the Big Ten Championship, proving they can hang in a shootout.

Defensively, both teams bring efficiency to the table. SMU boasts one of the nation’s best rush defenses, holding opponents to under 100 yards per game. If SMU can contain Penn State’s run game, which averages over 200 yards per contest, and force them to rely on the pass, they will stay competitive. On the other hand, Penn State’s defense has held opponents to under 180 passing yards per game, which will be key against SMU’s air attack, averaging 270 yards per game. Whichever defense can neutralize the opponent’s strongest offensive weapon will have the edge in this matchup.

As for the spread, some sportsbooks have SMU as nine-point underdogs. If it moves to ten, the Mustangs are the play. While Penn State has the potential to dominate, I am unsure how much I trust their offense. That said, I believe Penn State is the superior team overall. If the line drops to around seven in favor of the Nittany Lions, I will happily back them to cover.

Expect line movement in the next few hours, with even more likely on Saturday morning before kickoff. If the line moves to ten, take SMU. If it drops closer to seven, take Penn State.

Lean: Penn State (-8.5) on BetOnline

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