#4 Penn State vs #9 Boise State: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | December 31, 2024

The Fiesta Bowl kicks off round two of the College Football Playoffs with a matchup between No. 4 Penn State and No. 9 Boise State. Both teams enter on a strong note, with Penn State relying on their standout defense and Boise State featuring Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty in their rushing attack. This matchup offers an intriguing clash of styles as the Nittany Lions take on a determined Mountain West contender.

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College football 2024: 68-60-3 (+0.96 Units)

College Football Playoffs Round One results: 3-1 (+1.91 Units)

#4 Penn State vs #9 Boise State Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Football games.

Spread:

Penn State: -11 (-113)

Boise State: +11 (-107)

Total

Over: 53.5 (-110)

Under: 53.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Penn State: -450

Boise State: +360

#4 Penn State vs #9 Boise State Bet

The last time I wrote about Penn State, I was lost, confused, and had no confidence in my pick. However, my initial gut read for SMU vs. Penn State was always Penn State, based on how well they played against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. That read turned out to be correct, and we also learned a key takeaway: the SEC and Big Ten dominate this tournament. For round two, let us avoid overthinking these neutral-site matchups.

Round Two Has Arrived

The Fiesta Bowl kicks off round two of the College Football Playoffs on Tuesday evening, featuring No. 4 Penn State and No. 9 Boise State. Both teams have been playing phenomenal football recently. Boise State boasts one of the best players in the country in Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, who will face one of the nation’s top defenses. Penn State’s rush defense ranks seventh in the country, holding opponents to around 100 yards per game. However, this will easily be the best rushing offense the Nittany Lions have faced all season.

Boise State enters this game after a dominant performance in the Mountain West Championship against a top-25 rush defense in UNLV. The Rebels had been holding opponents to under 120 rushing yards per game, but the Broncos, led by Jeanty, racked up over 215 yards, with Jeanty accounting for 209 of them. That said, Boise’s defense also gave up over 200 rushing yards in that game, which could spell trouble against a Penn State team with a top-20 rushing offense. Over their last three games, the Nittany Lions have averaged more than 230 rushing yards per game against Maryland, No. 1 Oregon, and No. 11 SMU.

Penn State has also proven they can play in shootouts, with a pass offense ranked 51st in the nation in passing yards per game. Boise State’s pass defense, on the other hand, is one of their weak points, ranked 21st worst in the country. If Boise cannot slow down Penn State’s offense, the Broncos’ run-heavy approach will struggle to keep pace. Boise ranks 21st in rush attempts but just 78th in pass attempts, making them heavily reliant on their ground game, for obvious reasons. Penn State’s coaching staff, led by James Franklin, will undoubtedly key in on stopping the run and forcing Boise to pass.

In the end, while Penn State has a history of underperforming in big games, this is still a matchup against a Mountain West team. No disrespect to the Broncos, but this should be another game where the Nittany Lions dominate.

Bet: Penn State (-11) on BetOnline

#4 Penn State vs #9 Boise State Game Prop

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Football games.

Drew Allar threw for over 300 yards against Kent State, which is ranked just above Boise State in pass yards allowed. Allar has surpassed 215 yards in eight of his 14 games this season, including standout performances against Oregon, Minnesota, Purdue, USC, UCLA, and Kent State. With Boise State likely focused on containing Penn State’s strong run game, this could open the door for Allar to air it out all night.

Prop Lean: Drew Allar Over 225.5 Pass Yards (-110)

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