#7 Alabama vs #11 Tennessee: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

I hope everyone has recovered from last weekend’s gauntlet of a College Football Saturday, because guess what. In a few short days, we get to do it again! While I’ll admit, this Saturday isn’t quite as good as the spectacle that was the October 12th slate, we’ve still got tons of great matchups across the betting board, including a Top 15 SEC Showdown in Knoxville. The Tennessee Volunteers host the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game that could eliminate either team from a shot at the Conference Championship.

Who Will Show Up on Saturday?

The Crimson Tide come into this game 5-1 on the season. They lost a stinker at Vanderbilt two weeks ago, but last week took down a feisty South Carolina team, beating them 27-25 at home. But now they go into a hostile environment in Tennessee, against a Volunteers team that has had this matchup circled. They want to win this game, as the Vols have beaten Alabama just once since 2006. The Crimson Tide start a very tough string of games coming up, as they face #11 Tennessee on the road, host #19 Missouri, then go down to Baton Rouge off a bye week to face #8 LSU. Could this be a slight look ahead spot for the Tide and their rough waters ahead?

As for the Volunteers, they are coming off an emotional win, beating Florida in overtime at home. That came could’ve been a slight look ahead to this week, as I’m sure Tennessee has their full focus on Alabama. The Vols will go into a bye week after this game, so I trust Josh Heupel to have his boys ready to roll in this SEC contest. As short home underdogs, can Tennessee surprise everyone and upset the Crimson Tide at home like they did two years ago in Knoxville?

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Alabama vs Tennessee: Top 15 SEC Showdown

Matchup Information – Alabama vs Tennessee

• Venue & Location: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, TN)
• Date: Saturday, October 19th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Alabama -3 (-115)
• Tennessee +3 (-105)

Money Line

• Alabama -162
• Tennessee +142

Total

• Over 56.5 (-115)
• Under 56.5 (-105)

Milroe vs Iamaleava in Knoxville This Saturday

Like I mentioned, this game is the start of a very tough few weeks for Alabama. They host a nasty Missouri team next week, and then look ahead to LSU on the road. We already saw that they aren’t invincible, and they only beat the Gamecocks by two last weekend. Is this the start of a badly timed slump for the Crimson Tide? Or can they turn things around?

This scenario is tough. You’ve got a Tennessee team that has a very good defense, hosting a potential Heisman candidate QB for the first time in his career, and the Vols are looking to find their groove again. Tennessee lost outright to Arkansas, and then struggled at home to the Gators, but I’m calling that a look ahead spot. This weekend, I think the defense comes especially fired up to take down Milroe and company. This unit still hasn’t allowed anyone to put up 20+ points against them, and they hold teams to 10.7 points per game. While I do believe Alabama is able to score more than 10, I don’t necessarily see them being able to put up a ton. Their team total is sitting at 28.5, with the under currently at even money. And I’ll admit, that is whispering in my ear.

Can Volunteers Defense Stay Tough?

While this is going to be the toughest offense Tennessee has seen all year, they do have a slight edge being at home. Alabama put up 41 points against Georgia, who has a great defense, but that was at home. Milroe was actually the Crimson Tide’s leading rusher in that game, but he was also not sacked once. The Alabama QB has been sacked 11 times over the other 5 games, and Tennessee is known to get pressure on the QB. The Volunteer defense has 12 sacks in 6 games, and I think they could put some pressure on Milroe and force a few mistakes.

Overall, I do lean with the Volunteers and the Under, but here’s where my coin is going.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers Best Bets

Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee Wins Outright, Under 56.5

Best Bets: Jalen Milroe Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

Nobody likes an under, I get it. Especially not on a stud, dual threat, Hesiman caliber QB. Milroe is the leading ball carrier in terms of touches for the Crimson Tide, out-carrying his top RB by 26 touches. But I trust this Tennessee defense to be up for the challenge. Let’s break it down.

Despite avoiding a sack against Georgia, Milroe is coming off a game where he was sacked 4 times, and 2 times against Vanderbilt. We all know sacks count against rushing yards for QBs, and with Tennessee getting to the quarterback at least twice per game, I could see him losing plenty of yards that way. Now, the Volunteers defense hasn’t allowed a QB to run for more than 22 yards in a game, and the longest rush they’ve allowed is just 15 yards to Graham Mertz last weekend.

Spying and containing Milroe will be a point of emphasis for Tennessee’s defense, and I expect them to force him to win with his arm. Milroe has a 14+ yard rush in every game this season, and he’s cleared this line in 3/6 contests, but hasn’t done so in the past two weeks. The Volunteers held a prolific rusher in Michael Hawkins Jr to just 1.8 yards per carry, and I think they can do the same with Milroe at home this weekend.

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