College Football Playoffs: Odds, Updates Future Bets | December 26, 2024

The College Football Playoff has reached the quarterfinals, and the odds are shifting as the nation’s top teams prepare for their biggest tests yet. Powerhouses like Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas remain favorites, while underdogs such as Arizona State and Boise State face steep challenges as double-digit underdogs. With injuries, defensive concerns, and momentum all in play, now is the time to reassess where the real value lies.

College Football Playoff Odds

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• Texas (+300)
• Ohio State (+350)
• Oregon (+400)
• Penn State (+500)
• Georgia (+525)
• Notre Dame (+525)
• Boise State (+3300)
• Arizona State (+5500)

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Is There Value Outside the SEC or Big Ten?

The short answer: no. At this point, no team has proven they can compete with the heavyweights of the SEC and Big Ten. Could Arizona State or Boise State pull off a stunning upset in the second round? Of course, anything is possible. But will they? Highly unlikely. Both teams are double-digit underdogs in their respective games.

I would not even entertain the idea of these teams making it to the final—or even the third round.

Do Not Doubt the Dogs

The key lies in looking around the middle of the odds board. Georgia is the most battle-tested team in the country. Yes, they will be without star quarterback Carson Beck due to his injury in the SEC Championship. However, people often overlook how talented college backup quarterbacks are. Gunner Stockton, a four-star recruit out of high school, was the No. 7 quarterback in the 2022 class. This is a player who should be able to step in for the injured Beck and keep the Bulldogs competitive. Personally, I believe Georgia will beat Notre Dame on January 1.

Downloadable 2024 Georgia Bulldogs football schedule https://t.co/b46RjjJvTH pic.twitter.com/yVG2lOQsGK

— UGA Football Live (@UGAfootballLive) July 29, 2024

Georgia boasts one of the best defenses in the nation, and they have consistently proven they can perform in any environment. Most importantly, they are coming into this tournament well-rested. Do not count out the Dogs at +525.

Doubting the Ducks

I have lost confidence in Oregon after what happened at Lucas Oil Stadium during the Big Ten Championship. The Penn State Nittany Lions exposed Oregon’s weak defense, doing whatever they wanted offensively. Yes, the Nittany Lions lost, but if you take away a few early offensive mistakes, they could have easily won the conference title. Oregon made even a James Franklin doubter believe they could make noise in the playoffs.

The Ducks have played incredible football all season, but their revolving door on defense will force their offense to shoulder too much of the load. Ultimately, this will be their downfall.

Looking ahead, I am uncertain about their matchup against Ohio State after the Buckeyes dismantled Tennessee. What I do expect is a high-scoring game. As for picking a side, Ohio State appears to be peaking at the right time for a deep playoff run. However, I would avoid backing a Ryan Day-led team at roughly 3/1.

Trust Texas

The Longhorns showed a new dimension this past weekend, dominating Clemson by reviving their run game, which had been struggling in recent weeks. They racked up nearly 300 rushing yards against a Tigers defense that typically allows just 150 yards per game. Against Arizona State, Texas should be able to exploit the Sun Devils’ weak pass defense, forcing them to overcommit and opening up opportunities for explosive ground plays.

Texas has the easiest path to the semifinal, needing only to beat teams from the ACC and Big 12 to get within one game of the championship. Both conferences have demonstrated their weakness throughout the season.

While I would not back the favorite to win outright, I prefer betting on a game-by-game basis. Still, the Longhorns’ defense looks capable of taking them all the way. If they face Oregon in the semifinal, Texas should handle them easily. Ohio State, on the other hand, would present a tougher challenge. Despite some concerns about starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, this team is poised to hit its stride against Arizona State.

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