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Friday Night NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (11/22)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Friday Night Lights are full as we have three NCAA Football matchups across the gridiron this evening. Let’s get into it and find our best bets.
Be sure to check out all of our NCAA Football game pieces and Expert Picks for the entire weekend, but for now, let’s look at tonight’s games!
Friday Night NCAA Football Best Bets
Temple vs UTSA Best Bets
Betting Odds
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- Temple +16.5 (-105)
- UTSA -16.5 (-115)
- Over/Under 55.5
Best Bet: Terrez Worthy Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115) BetOnline
Worthy leads the Owls in rushing yards this season, but he’s got a very tough matchup against the Road Runners, on the road. Temple has nothing to play for. They are 3-7, can’t make a bowl game, and this being their last road matchup, this is a garbage game for the Owls, and I honestly don’t see Worthy seeing many attempts.
He is running for 5.9 yards per carry, but has only cleared this number in 4/8 games this season. Plus this UTSA rushing defense is amazing. They rank 17th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up just 110 yards per game. This spread has been climbing, as the Road Runners can become bowl eligible with a win tonight, I see them handling business.
The Owls are inside the Bottom 25 in rush attempts per game, and I see them passing plenty as they play from behind. He split carries with Antwain Littleton who was much more efficient which makes me more comfortable in taking this low line.
Purdue vs Michigan State Best Bets
Betting Odds
- Purdue +14 (-115)
- Michigan State -14 (-105)
- Over/Under 49
Best Bet: Aidan Chiles Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-113) BetOnline
Aidan Chiles is going to sling the pill against Purdue. Not only are the Boilermakers 121st in passing yards allowed, giving up over 270 per contest, they are coming off a game where they gave up 300 to a very rush heavy Penn State offense. The Purdue secondary is not good, with their average QB rating being 168.8, 3rd worst in the FBS.
Quarterbacks have a field day against Purdue, and Chiles will be no different at home. He’s coming off a game with 40 pass attempts, throwing for 256 yards in the process. Now he’s only hit 300 once this season, and has only cleared this line in 4/10 games, but his completion percentage has improved this back half of the season, and it should be easy against Purdue.
QBs Against Purdue
- Drew Allar: 17/19-247-3
- Will Howard: 21/26-260-3
- Dillon Gabriel: 21/25-290-2
- Luke Altmyer: 20/34-379-3
To cut my list short and save some time, the last 7 quarterbacks have thrown for over 225 yards against Purdue. Their secondary has forced just 7 incompletions over the past two weeks, and I see Chiles letting it fly in order to fight for a spot in a bowl game.
#24 UNLV vs San Jose State Best Bets
Betting Odds
- UNLV -7.5 (-107)
- San Jose State +7.5 (-113)
- Over/Under 60.5
Best Bet: Floyd Chalk IV Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline
I’m taking the same approach as I did with Worthy in the Temple/UTSA matchup. Chalk has a very tough matchup against this UNLV rushing defense, and they are probably going to get blown out. I see UNLV coming to play in order to help them find the best bowl game possible.
Now, Chalk runs for 5.1 yards per game and has ran for 55+ yards in 6/10 games this season, but hasn’t done so in his last two games. Sure, he is back at home, but UNLV ranks 24th in the nation, allowing just 116 rushing yards per game. They also give up just 3.5 yards per attempt, and San Jose State does NOT run the ball often.
The Spartans rank 133rd (out of 134 FBS teams) in rushing attempts per game. They run the ball just 23 times per contest, and Chalk only sees 11 carries per game. It’ll be tough for him to be efficient with his touches, and I think the Rebels do a good job of stopping the Spartans’ ground attack.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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