#13 Indiana vs Michigan State: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Once again, the Indiana Hoosiers go into this weekend undefeated, a perfect 8-0 to start the season, including 5-0 in Big Ten play. However the Spartans of Michigan State are hosting the Hoosiers this weekend with playing spoiler on their mind. To be quite honest with you, I don’t see very many reasons to like the home team in this game, but part of me still believes Indiana is simply over performing week after week and will eventually come back down to Earth.

Michigan State is coming off a road loss to their Big Brother, the Wolverines. They kept it relatively close but did not cover the 3 point spread, losing 24-17 in the Big House. After winning their first three games, the Spartans are just 1-4 since then, but their win was a big upset over Iowa. Can they find the same magic to take down the Hoosiers?

Like I said, Indiana just keeps on winning. They were able to do it again last weekend without their starting QB, and Kurtis Rourke is on track to start this Saturday in East Lansing. This surely helps an Indiana offense that is scoring over 42 points per contest, ranking 3rd in the country. However, strength of schedule could come into play when discussing Indiana’s success, however will that come into play this weekend?

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#13 Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans: Can Hoosiers Be Stopped?

Matchup Information – Indiana vs Michigan State

• Venue & Location: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)
• Date: Saturday, November 2nd, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: Peacock

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Indiana -7.5 (-115)
• Michigan State +7.5 (-105)

Money Line

• Indiana -305
• Michigan State +255

Total

• Over 53 (-110)
• Under 53 (-110)

Can Spartans Stop Hoosiers at Home?

To be frank, I don’t know if the Spartans can stop Indiana. However, on the road in the Big Ten is always a tough game to win. I’m also not totally sold on Indiana, especially looking at the teams they’ve played this year. In terms of offensive scoring, the best team the Hoosiers have played all year is Maryland, who ranks 60th in the country putting up 27.3 points per game. The Hoosiers defense should have another easy game, as the Spartans put up just 18 points per game, ranking 117th out of 134 FBS teams.

On the other side of the ball the Hoosiers have had tough battles the past two weeks facing top 30 defenses in terms of scoring. The Spartans defense certain carries their team, ranking 56th in the nation, holding teams to 24.3 points per game. It’s not going to be a cake walk for the Hoosiers on Saturday, but it certainly won’t be their toughest task yet this season.

Ultimately, I see the Hoosiers dominating, but will not be backing them on the spread. I missed out on -7 and -8 gives me a bit of pause, so instead I’ll turn to the player prop market. We also peeked at Indiana’s TT, but for the juice they were asking, 30.5 or even 28.5 was’t quite doing the trick for me. However, I did find a player prop that tickles my plums.

Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans Best Bets

Indiana vs Michigan State Prediction: Indiana Wins & Covers, No Lean on Total

Best Bets: Justice Ellison Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

In a two back system, this is always scary. But I expect Indiana to use their backs heavily in this matchup, regardless of who is at QB. Last week with Tayven Jackson running the offense, he handed the ball off over 40 times, and Justice Ellison saw 29 carries. Even if Rourke is back, I expect. the Hoosiers to run the ball in order to take some pressure off of their banged up starter.

Ellison has cleared this line in just 3/8 games this season, but he’s gone for 100+ yards in each of those games, including 2 straight. He runs for 6.2 yards per carry, has cleared this line in as little as 9 touches, and with the volume I expect Indiana to have on the ground, I trust him to clear this line for us. The Spartans allow over 145 rushing yards per game and over 4.1 per carry, and while they have had a couple good games on the ground, there have been backs that have gotten the best of them.

Running Backs Against Michigan State

• Treshaun Ward (BC): 14-102-1
• TreVeyon Henderson (OSU): 7-69
• Jordan James (Ore): 24-166-1
• Kalen Johnson (Iowa): 14-98-1

I trust Ellison to get the volume needed to rush for 71 yards for us, as he’s been the leading ball carrier in 5/8 contests, splitting them evenly with Lawton in one game as well. Give me Indiana to dominate resulting in tons of caries for Justice this weekend.

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