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TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs #19 Missouri, NCAA Football Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Iowa Hawkeyes Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.0
-110
41
-110o
+350
Missouri Tigers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+6.5
-255
41
-110u
0
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameA couple of Midwest schools find themselves in Music City to face off in Nashville for some postseason action! The Iowa Hawkeyes and Missouri Tigers have been picked to compete in this game, and we are in for an exciting matchup between a Big Ten and an SEC football team.
The Tigers went 9-3 in the SEC this year, losing 3 of their 4 ranked matchups, but ending the season with some mojo, winning their last two. At home, they were a very tough team to beat, but things could be different in Nissan Stadium for this bowl game. As for the Hawkeyes, they had another “boring” season. They went 8-4 in the Big Ten but failed to make the conference championship with the extra members this season.
The Hawkeyes also won their last two games and four of their last five, going 6-3 in Big Ten play. Before we dive in, you know we’ve got to discuss the portal and who is actually taking the field!
Iowa Hawkeyes vs #19 Missouri Tigers: Music City Bowl
Matchup Information – Iowa vs Missouri
- Venue & Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
- Date: Monday, December 30th, 2024
- Kick Off: 2:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Iowa +3 (-116)
- Missouri -3 (-104)
Money Line
- Iowa +122
- Missouri -142
Total
- Over 40 (-115)
- Under 40 (-105)
Music City Bowl on Monday Afternoon
Let’s start with the big names! Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson and starting CB Jemari Harris will both sit out of this game, but HC Kirk Ferentz didn’t expect any other opt outs. For the Tigers, Theo Wease said he will play, but WR Luther Burden is opting out and Mookie Cooper is still hurt, meaning Brady Cook will only have one of this favorite three targets. Brendan Sullivan is rumored to be healthy and will start the bowl for Iowa, but if not, Jackson Stratton will continue leading the charge.
Both of these defenses are Top 25 in points allowed per game, but those numbers inflate away from home. The Tigers hold their opponents to less than 22 points per game, but that jumps to over 26 on the road. As for the Hawkeyes, they hold their foes to less than 20 PPG, but they give up roughly a field goal more if they aren’t playing in Iowa City.
While the total does seem a bit low for me, backing these offenses to score without their most valuable weapons seems like a foolish wager. However, the Hawkeyes, once a team known for soaring under, are actually 9-3 to the over this season. Missouri is just 5-7 to the over, but they’ve cleared the number in 3 of their L4 contests. Asking for a combined 40 points doesn’t seem like too many, but I can’t quite bring it to the counter.
Instead, I’ll pivot and just back one side.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs #19 Missouri Tigers Best Bets
Iowa vs Missouri Prediction: Missouri Wins & Covers, Over 40
Best Bets: Missouri TT Over 21.5 (-115) BetOnline
Like I said, we have two very good defenses, but again, away from home, they fall off. Even without Cooper and Burden, the Hawkeyes rank north of 100 (of 134 FBS teams) in opponent completion percentage, meaning Brady Cook could have a historic day. Without Kaleb Johnson, Iowa is not going to be as effective on the ground, and won’t be able to eat up the clock like they normally can.
Like I mentioned, backing the Missouri offense against a rock solid defense is sketchy, but with the Hawkeyes missing some pieces in the secondary, I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball. They haven’t had a problem doing so the past two weeks, and this is a number they’ve cleared in 10/12 games this season. While this might be sweaty, I think Missouri is good for three touchdowns on Monday afternoon.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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