NFL AFC Championship: Bills vs. Chiefs | Best Bets (1/26)

The 2024/25 NFL Season has come and gone. It feels like just yesterday we were talking about our favorite plays in Week 1 and now here we are, the 2nd last game of the season; the AFC Conference Championship Game.

Tonight’s game is just the latest iteration of this Bills/Chiefs rivalry. With so much to talk about, let’s jump right into my favorite plays in the AFC Championship Game. 

Here are our best bets for the Bills vs. Chiefs

• Travis Kelce o69.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
• Khalil Shakir o5.5 Receptions (+120)

Bills vs. Chiefs Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri
• Date: Sunday, January 26th, 2025
• Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

• Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
• Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-110)
• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

Money Line

• Buffalo Bills (+110)
• Kansas City Chiefs (-125)

Total

• Over 48 (-110)
• Under 48 (-110)

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Bills vs. Chiefs Analysis & Breakdown

Rivalry Renewed

This game marks the 4th time these two teams will face-off in the post-season; during the Mahomes/Allen era at least. Mahomes has won all 3 matchups so far and he’s looking to keep that streak alive tonight. On the other side, it Josh Allen looking to finally get over the hump.

Allen’s got a 7-5 record in the post-season so far in his career and like I said above, 3 of those losses have come to the Kansas City Chiefs. This will be just the 2nd time Allen has made it to the Conference Championship Game and it’s also the 2nd time these two teams will meet in the Conference Championship Game.

The rivalry really writes itself, so let’s talk about these two teams.

3-Peat

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to do something that’s never been done in the modern-era of football, 3-peat as World Champions. It would solidify this team has one of the greatest of all time and it would be hard to argue with the football heads that tout Mahomes as the goat (greatest of all time).

This season, despite a 15-2 record and the AFC’s top seed, one could argue was a down year for Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes recorded his lowest touchdown total since 2019, a year he played in just 14 games, and he averaged a career-low 245.5 passing yards per game. The “bad play” could be attributed to an aging Travis Kelce, a receiving core that spent a big part of the season hurt (Hollywood Brown/Rashee Rice) or maybe it was just Mahomes cruising through the regular season.

Last week against the Texans, Mahomes threw for just 177 yards and 1 touchdown, completing just 64% of his passes in a 23-14 win. This week against a Bills team that puts up points in bunches, we’ll need to see Mahomes switch to Championship mode, something he’s more than capable of doing.

In six Conference Championship games, Mahomes is 4-2; averaging 292.7 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. He’s thrown 3+ touchdowns in 4 of the 6 games, completed 68% of his passes and recorded a QBR of 109.8. In the 3 games against Buffalo, Mahomes has averaged 306 pass yards per game, he’s thrown 8 touchdowns and has yet to record an interception.

It’s Patrick Mahomes, we can’t still be surprised.

Redemption

This season has been a season of redemption for Josh Allen. Last season ended for the Bills in the Divisional Round against this very Chiefs team. Allen threw for just 186 pass yards and 1 touchdown, but did add 72 yards on the ground along with 2 rushing touchdowns. Despite his 3 touchdowns, the Chiefs walked away with a 27-24 win after Tyler Bass missed a field goal in the 4th quarter to tie the game.

The Bills once again came up short against the Chiefs and to add insult to injury it looked like the pairing of Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen was coming to an end. Diggs was traded to the Texans during the off-season and everyone took that as a sign that the Bills were throwing in the towel. Well, that couldn’t be father from what happened.

Josh Allen had one of the best seasons of his career, now up for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award, he lead the Bills to 13 wins this year; including wins over BOTH of the league’s top two teams, Kansas City and Detroit. Allen threw for 28 touchdowns this year, ran for 12 more and even added in a receiving touchdown for goo measure.

The one knock on Allen’s game coming into this year was his propensity to throw interceptions. This year he turned around and threw a career-low 6 interceptions, recording just 8 total turnovers in 17 games. Allen’s locked in and he’s got his eyes on the big one.

Travis Kelce o69.5 Receiving Yards (-106)

Travis Kelce is back like he never left. Over his L10 games, Kelce is seeing a 23% target share; averaging 9.5 targets per game, 6.6 receptions and 60.5 receiving yards per game. Last week in the Chiefs’ only playoff game so far, Kelce finished with 117 yards, one touchdown on 7 receptions.

Kelce finished with just 2 catches on 4 targets for just 8 yards in the Chiefs one game against Buffalo this year. Noah Gray finished the game with 2 touchdowns that probably should have been Kelce’s. I can’t explain Kelce’s struggles early this year, but I know he’s playing well now.

Kelce finished the season with just 3 touchdowns and last year he finished with just 5; both some of the lowest totals he’s recorded since Mahomes became the starter. He’s 35 year’s old and it’s tough to maintain that same level of play year in and year out. Now that it’s win or go home, like last year, I’m expecting playoff Kelce to be on full display.

In his L10 playoff games, Kelce is averaging 8.4 receptions/game, 9,.6 targets/game, 92 yards per game and he’s scored in 8 of the 10 games; scoring a total of 10 touchdowns. Mahomes leans on Kelce during the post-season and it’s more apparent against the Bills. In his 3-playoff games against Buffalo, Kelce’s averaging 96.3 receiving yards per game with 5 total touchdowns.

Travis Kelce o69.5 Receiving Yads (-106)

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Khalil Shakir o5.5 Receptions (+120)

With Diggs now in Houston, it was time for someone on this Bills team to step up; enter, Khalil Shakir.

Shakir put us on notice at the end of last year, he finished with 7 catches in the Bills loss to the Chiefs; catching Allen’s only passing touchdown in the game. In his L10 games, Shakir has recorded 6+ targets in all 10 games, recording 6+ catches in 6 of the 10 games and averaging 7.5 targets per game in that span.

Allen’s going to have to throw the ball if the Bills hope to beat the Chiefs. Allen’s coming off a game where he threw no touchdown passes, it was the 1st time he’s won a game like that. The only two other playoff games in which Allen threw no touchdowns he lost both. Once in 2020 to the Texans and once to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in 2023.

The last time Allen faced Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game, he threw for 329 yards and 4 touchdowns. It was Gabe Davis that recorded 200+ yards and caught all 4 of Allen’s touchdowns. This year it feel like Shakir could fit a similar role for this Bills team.

Shakir saw 12 targets, catching 8, in their one matchup this year. Add to that the fact he’s now caught 12 of his 13 targets in two post-season games this year, recorded 6+ in both games and has yet to score. Feels like a big Shakir day could be right there, on the horizon.

30% off all Betalytics Packages, Code: BNEWS

Khalil Shakir o5.5 Receptions (+120) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

To Recap, NFL Bets for January 26th, 2025:

In the Bills vs. Chiefs game on Sunday Night, we’re rolling with 2 props. Travis Kelce o69.5 Receiving Yards (-106), & Khalil Shakir o5.5 Receptions (+120); both via BetOnline

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