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NFL Conference Championship Must Bet Player Props | January 26, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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With just three games left in the NFL season, the stakes could not be higher as we dive into the Championship Round. This is where legends are made, and the stars shine brightest. Player props take center stage this weekend, with Saquon Barkley and Josh Allen positioned to deliver explosive plays in must-win matchups. Let’s break down why these two standouts are set to crush their longest rush props and add some extra excitement to your betting card.
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2024 NFL Write ups this season 40-36 (-2.04 Units)
Divisional Round Recap: 5-3 (+1.89 Units)
Commanders vs Eagles Player Prop
Can Saquon Barkley replicate last week’s performance?
All NFL odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Dec 23 at 1:30 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article
Only three games remain in the NFL season, and we are closing out the Championship Round with a player prop. We need the best running back in the league to continue doing what he has done all season long: ripping off massive chunk plays. Saquon Barkley’s longest rush is set at 20.5 yards at a juicy price of -155. Yes, the price is steep, but with some books offering this same prop at 23.5 yards, it makes sense to pay the juice in a game that is all about inches.
Over the last few weeks, Barkley has been running through every defense he has faced, surpassing this longest rush prop in four of his last five games. Against the Commanders this season, he recorded rushes of 35+ yards in both matchups. We only need 21 yards.
Washington has allowed the third-most rushing yards this season, surrendering nearly 140 yards per game on average. On the road, this number increases to 150 yards per game.
This prop feels like the stronger play if you are considering Barkley’s rushing yards prop, which is set at 125.5 yards. If he surpasses his longest rush prop, there is a strong likelihood he will also exceed his rushing yards total. In the 12 games where Barkley recorded a rush of 20.5+ yards, he went over 125 rushing yards in eight of them.
For a little extra fun, I have laddered this prop up to 50+ yards at +550.
Prop: Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 20.5 Yards (-155) on BetOnline
Bills vs Chiefs Player Prop
Can Josh Allen take the Bills to the promise land?
All NFL odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Dec 23 at 1:30 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article
Similar to Saquon Barkley’s prop, Josh Allen’s longest rush prop is set at 12.5 yards, while his rushing yards total is at 47.5. Like Barkley, for Allen to surpass his rushing yards prop, he will need to break off a few runs of 10+ yards.
The Derrick Henry of quarterbacks, as I like to call Allen, has run all over the Chiefs nearly every time he has faced them, whether in the playoffs or regular season. Averaging around 56 rushing yards per game against Kansas City, Allen has exceeded his longest rush prop in seven of his last eight matchups with them.
It has been almost five weeks since Allen broke out a 10+ yard run. In a must-win game, he will need to use his legs to give the Bills a shot at advancing. Quarterbacks run in the playoffs. This is a hurdle Allen has yet to clear in his career, and with how well Buffalo has played this season, he will do whatever it takes to get the Bills over this hump and into the Super Bowl.
Give me Josh Allen to go ballistic on Sunday!
For fun: Josh Allen 20+ yard rush + Saquon Barkley 30+ yard rush (+775).
Prop: Josh Allen Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-135) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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