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Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks

Raymond James Stadium

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In a rematch of the “Battle of the Bads,” the NFC South title is on the line when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">With a win, Carolina clinches the division. For Tampa Bay to claim it, the Bucs must beat the Panthers and also get help, needing the Falcons to defeat the Saints on Sunday.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Atlanta is coming off a massive upset win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, yet they’re laying only three points against a red-hot New Orleans Saints team led by Tyler Shough.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Between the Bucs and Panthers, Baker Mayfield and company opened as three-point favorites, but that number has dipped to -2.5. The total has held steady in the 43.5 to 44.5 range.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Can Tampa Bay keep its playoff hopes alive, or will Carolina seal the deal by Saturday night? Below, I’ll tell you what to expect with my Buccaneers vs. Panthers preview and prediction.</span></p>
<h2>Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers Preview &amp; Predictions</h2>
<div id="attachment_40626" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-40626" class="wp-image-40626 size-full" src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/bryce-young-panthers-nfl-1_b639b932b366418ebad6f3db2379f86f_2000.jpeg" alt="A battle for the top spot in the NFC South takes place on Sunday. Check out our Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Bucs preview &amp; picks..." width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/bryce-young-panthers-nfl-1_b639b932b366418ebad6f3db2379f86f_2000.jpeg 1024w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/bryce-young-panthers-nfl-1_b639b932b366418ebad6f3db2379f86f_2000-300x169.jpeg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><p id="caption-attachment-40626" class="wp-caption-text">Can Bryce Young lead his Panthers into the postseason with a win on Saturday?</p></div>
<h3>Bucs vs Panthers Preview</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When these teams met just a couple of weeks ago, Tampa Bay entered as a slight favorite, similar to this matchup. It was Carolina, however, that came away with a 23–20 victory. That win gave the Panthers control of the division and handed the Bucs their third straight loss.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Since then, Tampa Bay dropped its fourth consecutive game in a 20–17 loss to Miami, while Carolina followed up with a 27–10 defeat against Seattle.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In the first matchup between Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield, Young completed 21 of 32 passes for 191 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers. Mayfield went 18 of 26 for 145 yards with one touchdown and one interception.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">On the ground, Bucky Irving led Tampa Bay with 71 yards on 19 carries. Rico Dowdle paced Carolina’s backfield, though he was limited to 29 yards on nine attempts.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The NFC South has been the league’s worst division this season, with every team owning a negative point differential. So regardless of who wins, a short postseason stay is likely.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That said, both teams will treat this game like their Super Bowl with their seasons on the line. Here’s how they stack up.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Among 34 qualified quarterbacks this season:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">EPA per play: Mayfield (20th) | Young (28th)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Success rate: Mayfield (24th) | Young (26th) </span></li>
<li>CPOE: Mayfield (27th) | Young (22nd)</li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You probably didn’t need the numbers to know these quarterbacks have struggled, but the metrics add further validation.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In the run game:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rush EPA: Tampa Bay (21st) | Carolina (17th)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rush success rate: Tampa Bay (18th) | Carolina (15th)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There isn’t much separation here, though Carolina gets a slight edge.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Defensively, this is where both teams have really unraveled.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Overall defense:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">EPA per play: Tampa Bay (16th) | Carolina (23rd)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Success rate: Tampa Bay (21st) | Carolina (13th)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Against the pass:</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><br />
</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dropback EPA: Tampa Bay (19th) | Carolina (22nd)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dropback success rate: Tampa Bay (26th) | Carolina (17th)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Against the run:</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><br />
</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rush EPA: Tampa Bay (9th) | Carolina (27th)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rush success rate: Tampa Bay (5th) | Carolina (12th)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I also like to narrow the sample size to each team’s past five games to get a clearer picture of their current form.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">From Week 13 to today, Tampa Bay’s regression is evident. The Bucs rank 28th in dropback success rate and 24th in dropback EPA over that span, while their run defense has slipped to roughly league average.</span></p>
<h3>Bucs vs Panthers Predictions</h3>
<p><b>Best Bet: Bucky Irving Over 59.5 Rush Yards (-102)</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When I previewed the first meeting between these teams a couple of weeks ago, I said I’d tease the Panthers up from +2.5 to +8.5 in a standard six-point teaser. Honestly, I’d tease whichever team was the underdog in this matchup. Both have glaring vulnerabilities and rarely win by margin.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I also cashed an anytime touchdown bet on Sean Tucker at +230 in that game, but I won’t be going back to that well this time around.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Bucs go as far as Irving takes them. During their four-game losing streak, he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. So why would I look to play his rushing yards over?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Because Tampa Bay clearly needs him to establish the ground game &#8211; and they’ve already shown a willingness to lean on him against Carolina. In the first meeting, Irving handled 19 carries and, despite averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt, still finished with 71 rushing yards.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Attacking Carolina’s run defense remains the clearest path to offensive success. Since Week 13, the Panthers rank 30th in rush EPA and 27th in rush success rate. For the season, they’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks 24th in the NFL.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Given his lack of efficiency lately, oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly &#8211; dropping Irving’s rushing yards prop to 59.5. That’s a number he’s still cleared in six of nine games this season, even with his recent struggles.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Irving is positioned to be more effective on the ground in the rematch. With a better feel for how to attack Carolina defensively, I’m buying low and investing in his rushing upside.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel-articles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><b>Best Bet: Bucky Irving Over 59.5 Rush Yards (-102 at Lucky Rebel)</b></a></p>
<p><em>NFL Record: 96-84-1 (+1.76 units)</em></p>
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