Djokovic vs. Nadal 2022 French Open QF Betting: Nadal good value to continue Roland Garros dominance of Djokovic

When the 2022 French Open men’s singles draw was revealed, the potential matchup that most tennis fans or bettors would have circled was the latest edition of the Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry, which was slated to take place in the quarterfinals.

And while there have been plenty of upsets in men’s singles and women’s singles, the two legends have both successfully navigated their first four matches at Roland Garros.

So, here we are again: Djokovic vs. Nadal for the 59th time overall in singles competition and the 10th time at the French Open.

The two will face off in a must-see match that is slated to start at 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday afternoon (8:45 p.m. local time). Interested viewers in the U.S. can tune in to Tennis Channel to catch all of the action.

When they met last, it was in a four-hour match in the semifinals of this tournament a year ago. Nadal won the first set 6-3, but Djokovic claimed the final three sets 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 6-2 to advance to the final, where he would defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Djokovic vs. Nadal Head-to-Head Record (Singles Matches)

• Overall: Djokovic 30-28 Nadal
• Clay: Nadal 19-8
• Grand Slam Tournaments: Nadal 10-7
• French Open: Nadal 7-2
• Most Recent Djokovic vs. Nadal Match: Djokovic defeated Nadal 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 6-2 in the 2021 French Open semifinals

Djokovic, the world number one and #1 seed for the French Open, has breezed through his first four matches in Paris, defeating Yoshihito Nishioka, Alex Molcan, Aljaz Bedene, and #15 seed Diego Schwartzman all in straight sets.

Nadal, the #5 seed, defeated Jordan Thompson, Corentin Moutet, and #26 seed Botic van de Zandschulp in straight sets before being pushed to five sets by #9 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round.

As per the latest French Open odds, Djokovic is the favorite to win the men’s singles title, ahead of #6 seed Carlos Alcaraz (+200), Nadal (+500), and #8 seed Casper Ruud (+1400). Alcaraz could await the Djokovic-Nadal winner in the semifinals, if he can get past #3 Alexander Zverev in the quarters. Ruud, meanwhile, is the favorite to come out of the bottom half, ahead of #7 seed Andrey Rublev.

If he can go all the way and win his third French Open singles title, that would pull him level with Nadal with 21 Grand Slam men’s singles titles. And he’s also the favorite to win this match, which is a rare sight for any match involving Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Match Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 31 at 9:40 a.m. Eastern Time.

Moneyline

• Novak Djokovic -245
• Rafael Nadal +198

Game Spread

• Novak Djokovic -4.5 (-112)
• Rafael Nadal +4.5 (-118)

Total Match Games Over/Under

• OVER 38.5 (-115)
• UNDER 38.5 (-135)

To Win the First Set

• Novak Djokovic -172
• Rafael Nadal +140

2022 French Open Results for Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal

Novak Djokovic

• First Round: defeated Yoshihito Nishioka 6-3, 6-1, 6-0
• Second Round: defeated Alex Molcan 6-2, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4)
• Third Round: defeated Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
• Fourth Round: defeated #15 Diego Schwartzman 6-1, 6-3, 6-3

Rafael Nadal

• First Round: defeated Jordan Thompson 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
• Second Round: defeated Corentin Moutet 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
• Third Round: defeated #26 Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
• Fourth Round: defeated #9 Felix Auger-Aliassime 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Prediction and Picks

After playing only one match in the first three months of 2022, Djokovic was rusty early in his clay-court campaign. He lost his first match at the Monte-Carlo Masters to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, then lost the final of his home tournament, the Serbia Open, to Andrey Rublev.

But with more matches, the rust has dissipated, and if he is not at his best yet, he is certainly close to it. He went into the French Open following a Masters 1000 title at the Italian Open, which saw him defeat Aslan Karatsev, Stan Wawrinka, Auger-Aliassime, Ruud, and Tsitsipas all in straight sets along the way in Rome.

Heading into his match with Nadal, Djokovic’s most recent dropped set came against Alcaraz in the semifinals of the Madrid Open, which is also his most recent loss.

Nadal missed the start of the spring clay swing due to injury, and his only pre-French Open prep was Madrid, where he lost to Alcaraz in the quarters, and Rome, where he lost to Denis Shapovalov in the round of 16.

Nadal’s loss to Shapovalov saw him finish the match hampered by a foot injury, which understandably raised some serious concern. But Nadal is a battler, and if his foot is bothering him, it hasn’t stopped him yet. He had to dig deep to defeat Auger-Aliassime, but having to be tested is good prep for his latest duel with Djokovic.

In their head-to-head meetings at the French Open, Djokovic has defeated Nadal in straight sets only once. That was in the quarterfinals in 2015, a 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 victory.

That meeting is one of only two at Roland Garros in which Djokovic took the first set off of Nadal. He also did in the 2014 final, which Nadal rallied to win 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4.

Djokovic vs. Nadal Head-to-Head Results at the French Open

• 2006 (Quarterfinals): Nadal won 6-4, 6-4, 0-0 (Djokovic retired)
• 2007 (Semifinals): Nadal won 7-5, 6-4, 6-2
• 2008 (Semifinals): Nadal won 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (7-3)
• 2012 (Final): Nadal won 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5
• 2013 (Semifinals): Nadal won 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (3-7), 9-7
• 2014 (Final): Nadal won 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4
• 2015 (Quarterfinals): Djokovic won 7-5, 6-3, 6-1
• 2020 (Final): Nadal won 6-0, 6-2, 7-5
• 2021 (Semifinals): Djokovic won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 6-2

Betting against Nadal on this surface and at this tournament specifically is a tough thing to do. After all, he has lost only three times at the French Open. He is 109-3 at Roland Garros, losing twice to Djokovic and to Robin Soderling in the fourth round in 2009.

So, kudos to anyone who is betting against him, even with his foot, last year’s match, and Djokovic’s current form in mind.

But the King of Clay is the King of Clay for a reason, and he owns this matchup on this surface and at this tournament as well. Just like he did against Auger-Aliassime, he will have to dig deep to defeat his longtime rival, but the 13-time French Open champion is excellent value here to do just that.

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Betting Tip – Nadal to win (+198 at BetOnline)