2024 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Odds & Best Bets: Can Ruud or Nadal Spoil a Potential Sinner-Alcaraz Final?

The men’s singles action at the Madrid Open is reaching the business end, and several of the biggest names on the ATP Tour are still in the mix to win one of the biggest tournaments on the annual calendar.

Today, the round of 16 takes place in Spain’s capital city. Fourteen seeded players are still alive, including the top five seeds.

While world number one three-time Madrid Open winner Novak Djokovic didn’t take part in the tournament, two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is four wins away from a third straight title. Alcaraz, the #2 seed, will take on #23 seed Jan-Lennard Struff in a rematch of last year’s final, which Alcaraz won in three sets.

Also looking to advance today are #1 seed Jannik Sinner (versus #16 seed Karen Khachanov), #3 seed Daniil Medvedev (versus #17 seed Alexander Bublik), #4 seed Alexander Zverev (versus #21 seed Francisco Cerundolo), and #5 seed Casper Ruud (versus Felix Auger-Aliassime).

Auger-Aliassime, who is currently ranked 35^th, is one of the two unseeded players in the round of 16. The other has won the Madrid Open a record five times and has 36 career ATP Masters clay titles and is the greatest player to grace the surface.

Prior to the Madrid Open, Rafael Nadal had played only five competitive matches since the 2023 Australian Open. If he defeats #30 seed Jiri Lehecka today, he will match that number when he takes on Medvedev or Bublik in the quarterfinals.

ATP Madrid Open Round of 16 Draw

#1 Jannik Sinner vs #16 Karen Khachanov

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs #5 Casper Ruud

 

#3 Daniil Medvedev vs #17 Alexander Bublik

Rafael Nadal vs #3 Jiri Lehecka

 

#8 Hubert Hurkacz vs #12 Taylor Fritz

#21 Francisco Cerundolo vs #4 Alexander Zverev

 

#7 Andrey Rublev vs #24 Tallon Griekspoor

#23 Jan-Lennard Struff vs #2 Carlos Alcaraz

Though Nadal has played so little and hasn’t won this tournament since 2017, his prowess on clay makes him one of the favorites.

However, he and the rest of the field are looking up at the two young guns, Sinner and Alcaraz, both of whom mostly breezed through their first two matches in Madrid.

ATP Madrid Futures Odds: Odds to Win the 2024 Madrid Masters Singles Title

• Carlos Alcaraz +170
• Jannik Sinner +225
• Alexander Zverev +650
• Casper Ruud +900
• Rafael Nadal +900
• Daniil Medvedev +1100
• Andrey Rublev +2200
• Jiri Lehecka +2500
• Jan-Lennard Struff +2500
• Hubert Hurkacz +2800
• Taylor Fritz +2800
• Karen Khachanov +5000
• Felix Auger-Aliassime +8000
• Alexander Bublik +8000
• Francisco Cerundolo +8000
• Tallon Griekspoor +10000

See the rest of the odds at BetOnline and bag a 100% welcome bonus if your first deposit is made with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, or another form of cryptocurrency. Are you unfamiliar with BetOnline? Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review to learn more about what they offer and why you should give them a try.

Who Are the ATP Madrid Singles Favorites?

Carlos Alcaraz (+170)

Alcaraz already has one ATP Masters title to his credit this year, as he defended his title and his ranking points at Indian Wells last month, and he is looking to become the first player to win three consecutive Madrid Open men’s singles titles.

After losing to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals of the Miami Masters, Alcaraz had to withdraw from the Monte Carlo Masters and Barcelona Open due to a right forearm injury, but he looks to be back in business if his wins over Alexander Shevchenko (6-2, 6-1) and Thiago Seyboth Wild (6-3, 6-3) are any indication.

If he reaches the semifinals, Alcaraz could face Zverev, who he defeated in the 2022 Madrid Open final and has beaten twice in three attempts on clay.

Jannik Sinner (+225)

It has been an outstanding year thus far for the 2024 Australian Open champion, who is seeking his fourth title in just six tournaments this year. Following wins over Lorenzo Sonego (6-0, 6-3) and Pavel Kotov (6-2, 7-5) in Madrid, Sinner is now 27-2 in 2024.

Like Alcaraz, Sinner has an ATP Masters title to his name. Last month, he defeated Grigor Dimitrov to win the Miami Open, finally getting over the hump after losing the final there in 2021 and 2023.

If the Italian is to win his first ATP Masters clay title, he might have to navigate some stiff challenges in Madrid before he reaches the final. Ruud could be up next in the quarterfinals, while he could face either Nadal or Medvedev in the semis.

Alexander Zverev (+650)

Zverev, who has five career ATP Masters titles, is one of five players with multiple Madrid Open titles, joining Nadal, Djokovic (three), Roger Federer (three), and Alcaraz. He won his first title in 2018, then claimed his second title in 2021.

After being eliminated in the round of 16 of the Monte Carlo Masters by Stefanos Tsitsipas and by Cristian Garin in the quarterfinals of the BMW Open in Munich, he has seen off former highly ranked players Borna Coric (6-3, 6-2) and Denis Shapovalov (6-4, 7-5) to reach the round of 16 in Madrid.

Casper Ruud (+900)

Will Ruud win his first career ATP Masters title in Madrid?

He entered the tournament after taking the title at the Barcelona Open, ending a run of five straight losses in finals to win his first tournament title in a little over a year.

The momentum has carried over into Madrid, where he dispatched Miomir Kecmanovic (6-4, 6-1) and Cameron Norrie (6-2, 6-4) in his first two matches.

Ruud is 0-2 in his career against potential quarterfinal opponent Sinner, but they have not played since 2021 and have never met on clay. This is Ruud’s best surface, as 16 of his 22 career ATP main tour finals have been on clay.

Rafael Nadal (+900)

How much gas does Nadal have left in the tank? It remains to be seen, but it is fantastic to see him playing at a high level at this point when he hadn’t played a competitive match in 15 and a half months prior to the Barcelona Open, where he reached the round of 32.

But can he go further after defeating American youngster Darwin Blach, #10 seed Alex de Minaur (who he lost to in Barcelona), and Pedro Cachin?

While he is no stranger to playing deep into tournaments on this and all other surfaces, Lehecka’s run to the last 16 in Madrid is already his best result in an ATP Masters clay event and one of his best in a Grand Slam or Masters level tournament on any surface.

ATP Madrid Best Bets

Can anyone stand in the way of a Sinner-Alcaraz final? A Nadal run would be quite the sight, but it is perhaps asking too much of him when he is still just a handful of matches into his return.

Between what Alcaraz has done in Madrid over the last few years and Sinner’s current dominance of the ATP Tour, a showdown between the two of them feels inevitable. That would be huge for Sinner, who missed the Madrid Open last year due to illness and therefore only has points to gain and none to defend.

If you want to look beyond Alcaraz and Sinner for value, there is some appeal in Ruud. Yes, there is plenty to be said for his abysmal record against top players. He is 14-26 in matches against players who were ranked in the top 10 at the time, and he is 2-13 all time against Sinner (0-2), Alcaraz (0-4), Medvedev (0-3), Zverev (2-2), and Nadal (0-2).

However, this is his best surface, and he is in the right form at the right time. In addition to his win in Barcelona, he reached the final of the Monte Carlo Masters and enters his round of 16 matchup with Auger-Aliassime with 11 wins in his last 12 matches.

Other Tennis Betting Information

Where to Bet on ATP Madrid Matches and Other Tennis Tournaments

The odds mentioned in this article came from BetOnline, but they are far from the only place out there offering tennis odds. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.

In addition to BetOnline, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, Wimbledon odds, US Open odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:

• BetDSI (review)
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• Bookmaker (review)
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• MyBookie (review)
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There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.

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Want to Learn More About Tennis Betting?

If you are looking to learn more about how to bet on tennis, where to bet on tennis, this year’s most important tennis tournaments, and the top men’s and women’s singles tennis players, check out our handy tennis betting guide.