Japan vs Argentina Rugby World Cup Odds, Prediction & Picks: Quarterfinals on the Line in Nantes

There have been scares for several favored teams, but pool play at the 2023 Rugby World Cup has proceeded with only one real upset and few extremely close calls. If the final day of pool action follows the same script, Argentina will beat out Japan for a spot in the quarterfinals (7:00 am ET, CNBC/Peacock).

With England vs Samoa not turning out favorably for the underdogs in a heartbreaking late defeat, it is certain that the winner of this matchup in Nantes will move on the quarterfinals as the second-place team in Pool D.

Each team has posted similar results to this point. Each routed Chile, had a hard-fought win over Samoa, and both fought hard against England but couldn’t put up many points against the Pool D winners.

The penultimate match of Pool D play was a real thriller, as Samoa came agonizingly close to pulling off an upset of England. Will we see a nailbiter in Nantes? The Pumas are favored by double digits, but don’t write off the Brave Blossoms.

Japan vs Argentina Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Japan +12 (-105)
• Argentina -12 (-115)

Moneyline

• Japan +380
• Argentina -480
• Draw +3300

Over/Under

• Over 47.5 (-110)
• Under 47.5 (-110)

Can Japan Channel Inspiring England Performance to Push Pumas All the Way?

In their second pool match of this Rugby World Cup, Japan pushed England before falling away in the late stages in a 34-12 loss.

Since beating Ireland and Scotland as part of a perfect run through pool play at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, Japan have not beaten any Six Nations or Rugby Championship teams in 12 attempts to do so.

That is a disappointing return based on what you would have hoped to see from them after jumping onto the scene in the 2015 Rugby World Cup and then reaching the quarters as tournament hosts four years later.

But they have given a number of superior teams a real challenge, with England vs Japan last month in Nice the latest instance. In fact, that was a more a hotly contested match than England vs Argentina, even though the Pumas lost by fewer points.

Of those 12 losses, five have come by single digits, and they were within ten or fewer points in the second half in four of the other matches.

Recent Results for Japan vs Six Nations & Rugby Championship Teams

• September 17, 2023 (2023 Rugby World Cup pool play): 34-12 England – trailed 13-12 with 25 minutes left
• August 26, 2023: 42-21 Italy – trailed 28-21 with under five minutes left
• November 20, 2022: 35-17 France
• November 11, 2022: 52-13 England
• October 29, 2022: 38-31 New Zealand
• July 29, 2022: 20-15 France – led 15-7 at halftime
• July 2, 2022: 42-23 France – tied 13-13 at halftime
• November 20, 2021: 29-20 Scotland –
• November 6, 2021: 60-5 Ireland
• October 23, 2021: 32-23 Australia
• July 3, 2021: 39-31 Ireland – led 24-19 in the second half
• October 20, 2019 (2019 Rugby World Cup quarters): 26-3 South Africa

So, they will know that they can compete with the Pumas deep into the contest, and the possibility of an upset can’t be dismissed.

However, Argentina can take some confidence from the fact that they have a strong record against Japan and against non-Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams.

You have to go back to December 3, 2005, when they lost 28-12 to Samoa, for Argentina’s last loss to a team outside that group. Prior to that loss in Buenos Aires, Argentina hadn’t lost a test to a lower-tier team since taking their only loss to Japan to date.

Japan vs Argentina Rugby Head-to-Head Results

• 2016 (November 5 – Tokyo): 54-20 Argentina
• 2005 (April 23 – Buenos Aires): 68-36 Argentina
• 1999 (October 16 – Cardiff, Wales): 33-12 Argentina
• 1998 (September 15 – Tokyo): 44-29 Japan
• 1993 (May 22 – Buenos Aires): 45-20 Argentina
• 1993 (May 15 – Tucuman, Argentina): 30-27 Argentina

This is all a lot for Japan to have to overcome, but with the stakes high, anything is possible, and they showed enough against the best team in the pool that they should be taken seriously here.

Japan vs Argentina Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Argentina to win

Picks: Japan/Argentina under 47.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Japan +12 (-105 at Bovada)

Most of the previous head-to-head matchups between Japan and Argentina have been high-scoring games with wide margins of victory, but I am backing a close, lower-scoring contest in Nantes.

I think the Pumas will pull it out, but they will have to work for their result, which will set up a matchup with Wales in Marseille next Saturday.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.