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USA vs Japan Olympic Women’s Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Americans Roll in Gold Medal Rematch?

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USA vs Japan Olympic Women's Basketball Prediction & Picks cover A'ja Wilson

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The quest for an eighth straight Olympic women’s basketball gold medal begins today for the USA, who will take on Japan in Group C action in the last of the day’s four games (3:00 pm ET, USA).

Three years ago, the two teams met twice at the Tokyo Olympics, first in the preliminary round and again in the final. Both times, the USA pulled away in the second half to see off a spirited effort.

Ahead of the rematch, the USA (-3300), led by WNBA superstars A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, is heavily favored to top Group C. Japan (+2500) holds the third-best odds behind Belgium (+1500) and ahead of Germany (+8000).

So, the USA is expected to breeze through today’s contest and their other two group games, which will take place on Thursday (vs Belgium) and Sunday (vs Germany).

However, Australia, the third-ranked team in the world and one of the main medal favorites, was also expected to breeze through today’s opener against Nigeria. Instead, they found themselves on the wrong end of a massive upset, and the 75-62 stunner has blown Group B, which also includes Canada and France, wide open.

But even though Australia (-25.5) was favored by a bigger margin against Nigeria than the USA are against Japan, it would be a significantly more earth-shattering upset if Japan could do what they couldn’t do in two attempts on home soil three years ago.

USA vs Japan Odds

Spread

USA -21.5 (-110)
Japan +21.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 160.5 (-110)
Under 160.5 (-110)

See more USA vs Japan odds at BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a bonus to bet on this blockbuster Olympic women’s basketball tournament matchup.

USA vs Japan Betting Analysis

There isn’t anything from Japan’s Olympic warm-up games that would indicate a realistic chance to challenge or upset the USA.

In fact, if anything, the results are discouraging. In their last two pre-tournament contests, Japan fell by double digits to both France (75-62) and Belgium (75-65).

Even if the USA doesn’t shoot well, Japan will still need to put up some points to be competitive.

It is worth noting that the USA didn’t exactly sizzle offensively in their warm-up win over Germany last Tuesday. Still, even though they shot 41.7% from the field and committed 13 turnovers, they still put up 84 points. And thanks to an outstanding defensive effort—Germany shot only 29.4% overall and 20.7% from three and committed 17 turnovers)—the USA won by 27 points.

That says a lot about the task that lies ahead for Japan. With all due respect to Japan, even with their efforts in the Tokyo Olympics in mind, it would take a Herculean effort on their part and a poor effort on the USA’s part for today’s Olympic women’s basketball action to be bookended with massive upsets.

USA vs Japan Prediction & Picks

At the Tokyo Olympics, the Americans won by 17 (86-69) in the preliminary round and by 15 (90-75) in the gold medal game.

But that was on home soil for Japan, and being the Olympic host country often brings out an extra level, whether on the basketball court, the pool, or elsewhere.

However, while I do feel confident that Team USA will comfortably take care of business against Japan, this is a big spread. So, if you don’t feel comfortable backing the favored squad to stroll in this one, don’t do it.

That is the option I’m backing though, and I feel good about the USA’s chances to cover, even if it takes pulling away in the fourth quarter to do so.

I’m also backing the Americans to cover the spread in the first half, and I’m turning to Bovada to back the first half to be the highest-scoring half. That trend has been sizzling thus far on the men’s side, and early signs are positive on the women’s side as well. If the outcome is what I expect it to be in this matchup, late free throws won’t come into play like they might in a closer game.

USA vs Japan Prediction: USA to win

USA vs Japan Picks: 1) USA -22.5, 2) USA first half -12.5, 3) first half to be the highest-scoring half (-117 at Bovada)

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Other Olympic Women’s Basketball Betting Information

Where to Bet on USA vs Japan & the Olympic Women’s Basketball Tournament

Betting interest in women’s basketball is high at present, and there are many sports betting sites where you can place bets on this matchup and other Olympic women’s basketball odds.

The odds in this piece come from BetOnline, which has a wealth of betting markets for this event and other Paris 2024 events.

Including BetOnline, below are some of the sites that we recommend for betting on the Olympics.

Best Betting Sites for the Olympics

Unfamiliar with any of the sites listed? Check out our reviews for each site to learn more about them. Our reviews cover available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile betting, and bonuses and loyalty/VIP programs.

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