MLB Best Prop Bets Today | April 23, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Wed Apr 23, 2025, 18:12 PM
Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: Two starters with rough hard-contact numbers take the mound today, and both face lineups built to take advantage. Taj Bradley and Luis Ortiz have stumbled out of the gate, and now they’re up against the Diamondbacks and Yankees. With plus money on both offenses in the first five, it’s a strong spot to target early scoring.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 23rd
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Last Month Betting MLB: 83-124-2 (+5.47u)
Last week Betting MLB: 23-37 (-0.93u)
Yankees vs Guardians Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (+120) odds via BetOnline
Can Aaron Judge maintain his .400 average?
Today we are fading two pitchers who give up a ton of hard contact.
Let us start with Guardians starter Luis Ortiz, who is allowing over 41 percent hard contact in his matchup against the Yankees this afternoon. He will face five elite-rated Yankees, zero rated poor, one above the league strikeout rate, and two above the league ground ball rate. Ortiz carries the second-worst pitcher rating on the day, ahead of only Athletics starter JP Sears. The Guardians right-hander also has a poor-rated average hitter matchup in wOBA, ISO, and matchup strikeout percentage.
Ortiz has allowed at least two runs in three of his four starts this season. He holds a 5.48 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has struggled significantly with command—walking 3.8 batters per nine innings. In 21.1 innings pitched, he has issued nine walks, allowing over two free passes in three of his four outings.
New York ranks seventh in walks per game, averaging 3.83. More importantly, they lead the league in first-five scoring, putting up an average of 3.5 runs. On the road, that number dips to 2.5, but with Ortiz’s struggles and the Yankees’ elite bats, getting them at plus money to go over 2.5 runs in the first five makes this my favorite afternoon play.
Rays vs Diamondbacks Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (+100) odds via BetOnline
Can Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks keep those hot bats alive against Taj Bradley?
Death. Taxes. Fade Taj Bradley away from Tampa.
Bradley enters today’s slate with a poor rating on Batters-Box.com. On top of that, the Rays’ starter has the highest hard contact percentage among all starters today—allowing over 43 percent hard contact to opposing hitters. He also holds the worst average hitter matchup ISO on the board. The 24-year-old right-hander carries a 5.24 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He has allowed over this prop in half of his starts this season.
The Diamondbacks enter with the highest-rated offense of the day: four elite-rated hitters, none rated poor, five hitters above the league strikeout rate, and four above the league ground ball rate. There will always be a few more hitters above the league strikeout rate when facing Bradley, due to how well he generates swings and misses. Still, giving up nearly 45 percent hard contact is not ideal for a young starter.
Arizona ranks 11th in first-five scoring this season, averaging 2.52 runs per first five innings. At home, they are slightly below that mark, but this lineup has been seeing the ball well lately. With Tim Tawa, Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suarez all graded as elite today, this is a strong spot to back a surging offense at plus money.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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