Germany vs Slovenia Prediction & Picks: Who Will Win Group K?

With four games and four wins behind them both, Germany and Slovenia can already look ahead to the FIBA World Cup quarterfinals.

But their Sunday showdown in Okinawa (7:10 am ET, ESPN+) is still one of the most significant games on the final day of second round play.

The Germany-Slovenia winner will finish on top of Group K, and that will mean a matchup with the team that finishes second in Group L, where Canada, Spain, Brazil, and Latvia are all 3-1 entering Sunday’s Brazil-Latvia and Spain-Canada matchups.

Will Luka Doncic lead the way again to keep Slovenia perfect at the FIBA World Cup? Or will Germany’s NBA contingent step up again to keep them on course for their second-ever World Cup medal?

Germany vs Slovenia Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Germany -4.5 (-110)
• Slovenia +4.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 176.5 (-110)
• Under 176.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Germany -210
• Slovenia +170

Does Doncic Need to Score for Slovenia to Succeed?

Against Australia on Friday, Slovenia upset the odds and ended the Boomers’ World Cup medal hopes with a 91-80 win.

Slovenia controlled the contest from start to finish, as they never trailed and lead almost the entire game. After pulling within 15-13 in the first quarter, Australia would be that close only once more, when they made it 66-64 early in the fourth quarter.

Results for Slovenia at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

• Saturday, August 26: Slovenia 100-85 Venezuela
• Monday, August 28: Slovenia 88-67 Georgia
• Wednesday, August 30: Slovenia 92-77 Cape Verde
• Friday, September 1: Slovenia 91-80 Australia

Slovenia’s domination isn’t the most surprising part of the result, however. Not only did they win, but they won with Doncic taking only nine shots all game after taking 17, 20, and 18 shots in the first three games.

Doncic made four of his nine shots, snagged seven rebounds, and dished out six assists, and he still ended up with 19 points because he went 9 of 10 on free throws.

However, for Slovenia to beat Germany and to have the best chance to push for gold at the FIBA World Cup, Doncic may need to get in his bag as a scorer.

That is what the NBA’s second-leading scorer did in his first two tournament games against Venezuela and Georgia.

Stats for Luka Doncic at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

• Venezuela: 37 points (11 of 18 FG, 2-8 3PT, 13-16 FT), seven rebounds, six assists
• Georgia: 34 points (9-20 FG, 3-9 FT, 13-17 FT), 10 rebounds, six assists, three steals
• Cape Verde: 19 points (5-17 FG, 1-8 3PT, 8-11 FT), seven rebounds, nine assists, four steals
• Australia: 19 points (4-9 FG, 2-6 3PT, 9-10 FT), seven rebounds, six assists

It’s also what he did the last time he faced Germany, which was in group action at Eurobasket 2022. In that game in Cologne, Germany, Doncic scored 36 points (14-25 FG, 2-8 3PT, 6-9 FT) and added ten rebounds and four assists to lead Slovenia to an 88-80 win.

Germany has yet to face anyone who can take over a game like Doncic can, and if he gets going, they might be in trouble.

That said, putting points on the board has not been an issue for Germany, even without Franz Wanger, who has missed the past three games after injuring his ankle in the fourth quarter of the opener against Japan.

Results for Germany at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

• Saturday, August 26: Geany 81-63 Japan
• Monday, August 28: Germany 85-82 Australia
• Wednesday, August 30: Germany 101-7, Ger5 Finland
• Friday, September 1: Germany 100-73 Georgia

In Friday’s win over Georgia, Germany shot 52.4% from the field and made 20 of 35 (57.1%) from three. After shooting 50.8% against Australia and 57.4% against Finland, they shot over 50% for the third straight game.

Can Germany keep that up against Slovenia? They won’t find it easy to do so. Slovenia held Australia to 43.5% shooting from the field, including just 33.3% from three. By comparison, Australia shot 54.2% from the field and 47.4% from three in their loss to Germany.

Germany vs Slovenia Prediction & Picks

Prediction: Slovenia to win

Picks: Slovenia +4.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Luka Doncic over 30.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

Luka hasn’t put up big scoring numbers in back-to-back games, but I think he will show up and show out here to propel Slovenia to the top of Group K.

Where to Bet on Germany vs Slovenia and the 2023 FIBA World Cup

The Germany vs Slovenia betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.