USA vs Germany Prediction & Picks: Whose Pursuit of Gold Medal Glory Will Be Ended in Pasay?

The USA went into the 2023 FIBA World Cup favored to win the tournament for the sixth time, and they are two wins away from achieving that goal. Standing in their way of reaching the World Cup final for the ninth time is Germany, who is looking to reach the gold medal game for the first time ever.

Tomorrow’s semifinal showdown in Pasay (8:40 am ET, ESPN2) sees a lot of familiar faces face off at the Mall of Asia Arena. When it comes to current teammates, the USA’s Paolo Banchero will match up against Orlando Magic teammates Franz and Mo Wagner, while the Indiana Pacers are represented by the USA’s Tyrese Haliburton and Germany’s Daniel Theis.

Who will have bragging rights when they return to their NBA teams? The USA is favored by a healthy margin and is coming off of a dominant win over Italy, but Germany is playing some inspired basketball.

USA vs Germany Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of Thursday, September 7, 2023, at 5:00 pm ET.

Spread

• USA 10.5 (-105)
• Germany +10.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 178.5 (-105)
• Under 178.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• USA -650
• Germany +435

Can Germany Avoid Another Slow Start?

Germany is the only undefeated team left in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, as they have won all six of their tournament games. To reach the semis, they held off Latvia 81-79 in a thriller in Manila on Wednesday.

In addition to having to survive a furious fourth-quarter rally to advance, Germany also had to navigate yet another slow start.

In their second-round finale against Slovenia, Germany went only 5 of 15 from the field and trailed 25-11 after the first quarter before blasting Luka Doncic and co. 89-46 over the final three quarters.

Against Latvia, Germany again went only 5 of 15 from the field in a 13-point first quarter.

Another slow start is not something that they can afford against the USA. This may not be the USA’s “A” team or even their “B” team, but their demolition of Italy was their fourth win by 25+ points in this World Cup.

Germany also can’t afford for Dennis Schroder to have a game like he did against Latvia.

In the win over Slovenia, Schroder was 8 of 11 from the field on the way to a 24-point, 10-assist performance. But he went to the other end of the spectrum against Latvia, missing all eight of his three-point attempts and making only 4 of 26 shots.

Top Performers for Germany vs Latvia

• Franz Wagner: 16 points, eight rebounds, three assists
• Andi Obst: 13 points (3 of 6 3PT)
• Mo Wagner: 12 points, four rebounds
• Johannes Thiemann: 10 points, seven rebounds
• Daniel Theis: nine points, eight rebounds

Fortunately for Germany, Franz Wagner was back in action after missing four games. He played like he hadn’t missed a single game, making 5 of 8 shots, including 2 of 4 from three, and recording 16 points, eight rebounds, and three assists.

Just as Germany needs Schroder to bounce back to have the most optimal chance to win, the USA would benefit from a strong performance by Anthony Edwards.

After ending the second round with 35 points against Lithuania on Sunday, Edwards was just 1 of 6 from the field and scored only three points against Italy on Tuesday.

The loss to Lithuania showed the need for others to step up for the USA, and that is exactly what happened against Italy.

Top Performers for the USA vs Italy

• Mikal Bridges: 24 points (8 of 11 FG, 4 of 6 3PT), six rebounds, two steals
• Tyrese Haliburton: 18 points (6 of 8 3PT), four rebounds, five assists
• Austin Reaves: 12 points, four rebounds, three assists
• Paolo Banchero: eight points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals
• Bobby Portis Jr.: seven points, seven rebounds

Edwards was just 1 of 5 from three, but everyone else combined to go 16 of 31 from outside. It was the USA’s best perimeter performance of the tournament, by far. Entering the quarters, the Americans had made 36.7% (43 of 117) of their threes.

Thus far, Australia (9 of 19, 47.4%) is the only opponent to shoot 40% or better from three against Germany. If the USA can hit that target, they will likely be in a good position to pull out the win.

USA vs Germany Prediction and Picks

Prediction: USA to win

Picks: Mikal Bridges over 11.5 points (-115 at Bovada) & Franz Wagner over 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at Bovada)

I think the USA will win and cover, but I’m staying away from any spread or total picks here.

I love, love, love these two prop plays. Bridges averaged only 8.8 points per game in his first four World Cup games, but he had 14 points against Lithuania and then took on a starring role against Italy. Look for him to keep it going against Germany.

Wagner has played in only two games, but he has filled up the stat sheet in both games. In addition to his performance against Latvia, he had ten points, six rebounds, and five assists in 27 minutes in the opener against Japan before exiting with an ankle sprain.

Where to Bet on USA vs Germany and the 2023 FIBA World Cup

The USA vs Germany betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.