By the Numbers: Best Bets For Today’s NHL Games (4/11)

We’re in the final week of the NHL regular season and the Eastern Conference playoff race is as tight as it’s been in over a decade. 4 teams are battling for a spot in the playoffs and there are critical points on the table tonight. Washington plays Buffalo and the Penguins play the Red Wings in what could be the deciding factor on who gets the final playoff spot. Auston Matthews is chasing 70 and has 4 games to score 4 goals. There are 10 games in the NHL tonight, and we swept the board on Tuesday’s best bets. Let’s get in the lab and cook up tonight’s best bets!

Oh, it's on. Every team involved in the Eastern Conference playoff race is in action tonight.

Which two teams do you want to see claim the final two spots?#NHLStats: https://t.co/sHOEzgUXRk pic.twitter.com/IcR6Y6fZat

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 11, 2024

Best Game Bets

If you’re interested in getting the best edges on the lines and the inspiration for these betting pieces, you can get access to all the data and models at BetAlytics!

Pittsburgh ML (-150)

The Penguins and Red Wings playoff hopes likely come down to tonight. Both teams have 84 points with four games remaining and are on the outside, looking in. A loss in regulation would be the nail in the coffin for either team. Both teams could come out tentative, making the case for a 1st Period Under play. However, Pittsburgh has been the better team of late and Sidney Crosby is on their side of the ledger. Both Betalytics and my model have the Penguins predicted to win tonight with some value on the line. The Penguins are over 61% to win, and the Penguins have only one regulation loss in their last 10. There is value on a draw, as both teams understand the value of getting points. The combination of recent play and having multiple Hall of Famers is the key difference in tonight’s matchup. Back the Pens, sprinkle on the 1st Period Under (+102) and the the game to go to OT (+370).

Los Angeles ML (-192)

The Kings face-off against the Calgary Flames, who have only managed to win two of their last 10 games. Los Angeles is in a neck and neck battle with Vegas for the last Pacific Division place in the playoffs. They are one point up with Vegas currently holding the tiebreaker. The Kings are projected to win with a bullet tonight, an over 75% to win at home. Regardless of the -192 line, there is significant value on the implied win percentage, exactly what we’re looking for. The Flames have been one of the worst teams down the stretch, giving up 4+ goals in seven of their last 10. Los Angeles is coming off a brutal loss against Anaheim. They’ll be looking to bounce back in a major way to keep pace in the playoff race. Count on the Kings to get it down with ease tonight.

Best Player Props

If you’re interested in getting the best edges on the lines and the inspiration for these betting pieces, you can get access to all the data and models at BetAlytics!

Chris Kreider 1+ Point (-160)

Stay Hot Chris! The New York Ranger forward has been a money printer for us, lately. Kreider is a top player in both models for tonight’s matchup against the Flyers. Philadelphia has gone right off the rails in the last fortnight, giving up 9 goals to Montreal earlier this week. That’s very tough mentally and their reward is a team battling to lead the NHL in regular season points. Kreider has cold over the last week, meaning there is no better situation for him to snap out of it. On a line with Zibanejad and the primary net front player on powerplay that is firing on all cylinders, it is a recipe for Kreider’s success. He’s projected to have a 72% chance of recording a point, giving this line 15% value. With Philly down bad, expect Kreider to thrive in tonight’s matchup.

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots (-110)

This one is REAL easy. We don’t tinker with things that work. Matthews is chasing 70 goals and the Leafs have made it quite clear that they are doing everything in their power to get him there. What does that mean? It means he’s peppering the net with shots on a nightly basis and teammates are looking for him, more than they normally do. He has 11 goals in his last 10 games against New Jersey, but -140 has no value. The Devils are without Jack Hughes and couldn’t keep Matthews in check on Tuesday evening in Newark. There is no reason to suggest that anything will change in tonight’s matchup. He’s projected for 5 shots without the escalator factor that he is looking for extra chances. He’s 65% to hit his line based on the model, but he’s a ladder candidate tonight considering the narrative.