By The Numbers: Best Bets on Today’s NHL Games (4/9)

We’re in the home stretch of the NHL regular season and the Eastern Conference playoff race is as tight as it’s been in over a decade. 5 teams are battling for a spot in the playoffs and there are critical points on the table tonight. Washington and Detroit are in the hunt and face-off tonight. The Flyers need two points in their game against Montreal and Islanders welcome their cross-town rivals for a critical matchup. There are 13 games in the NHL tonight, meaning the model is getting a workout cooking up some best bets for tonight’s slate. Let’s get in the lab!

The @penguins extended their point streak to nine games and tied the Red Wings, in terms of standings points.

Seven teams, separated by six points, are still in contention for two playoff spots in the East, including five teams divided by a two-point margin. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/rk5cLXKTFx

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 9, 2024

Best Game Bets

Toronto ML (-120)

The Leafs are on the second half of a back to back with travel, traditionally a poor spot. However, New Jersey clobbered them two weeks ago at home and Toronto is getting healthier. Both Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly have returned to the lineup and on paper, the Leafs are the superior team. The line has value until -135 and I’d play it to -130. The Leaf are 55% to win according to Betalytics and 58% in my model. The Leafs are coming off an OT win against Pittsburgh on Monday night and expect Joseph Woll to start in New Jersey. The Devils lost in a shootout against Nashville on Sunday, but have been stingier defensively over the last two weeks. Auston Matthews is red hot and dominates the Devils, scoring 14 goals in 15 career games. He and Marner will be a big part of the story line tonight and should find themselves on the scoresheet. Toronto needs the points as they are pushing for second in the Atlantic Division, meaning tonight’s matchup is critical for home ice in the playoffs.

Dallas + Tampa Bay ML (-115)

Two elite hockey teams play two teams outside of the playoff picture. Both lines have individual value based on xWin%, but the juice is heavy. Pairing up two of the league’s best teams for nearly even money is a good spot. Dallas is an overwhelming home favorite against Buffalo whose playoff chances are hanging by a thread. The Sabres hav struggled to a 5-5 record over their last 10, while Dallas is 9-1 over the same stretch. The Stars have hit their stride and are one of the NHL’s best teams when they’re firing on all cylinders. With an xWin% of 68%, they should have no trouble dispatching a Sabres team that is struggling to create offense. Tampa plays Columbus, one of the worst teams in the NHL this season. Tampa has flipped the switch and has been one of the better teams over the last 6 weeks. The Lightning are running teams out of the rink more often than not, which doesn’t bode well for Columbus. Nikita Kucherov looks to expand his lead as the NHL points leader, a recipe for success if you’re betting on the Bolts. The two teams together provide us with a near even-money wager.

Best Player Props

Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (-120)

It is more likely that Kucherov records two points than none and when he’s playing one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, we’re going to take that trend to the bank. Kucherov is lighting the league on fire this season with 136 points. He’s torched Columbus over his career with 13 goals and 24 assists in 26 games, for an average of 1.42 points per game. There’s a real possibility he puts up 3+ points tonight with a couple of assists, making the betting options pretty delicious. He’s projected for 1.83 points in tonight’s matchup and based on his run of play, there is a real chance Kucherov sails over this number in the first period. He’s become a set it and forget it bet for me down the stretch and we’re riding the train until the end of the line.

Joel Farabee Over 1.5 Shots (-175)

Farabee has the second best shots on goal matchup tonight against Montreal. The Canadiens bleed shots and Farabee has a matchup rating of 77% with an expected win percentage of 74% and projected shot total of 2.26. He’s cleared this line with ease this season and in 8 of his last 10 games. Philadelphia is desperate for a win in the playoff race and Farabee is someone they rely on to generate scoring chances. Against a Montreal team that struggles defensively, the Flyers will need Farabee to funnel pucks at the net to create chances to score. The projection, trends and matchup rating are all above 70%, a recipe for success.

Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots

The Battle of New York has critical playoff implications with the Isles trying to solidify a playoff spot and the Rangers trying to lock up the President’s Trophy. Zibanejad has been firing the puck consistently over the last fortnight for the Rangers. He’s hit this line in five straight and 9 of his last 10 games. Averaging more than 8 shot attempts per game and 5 shots on goal over his last three games. Zibanejad is a primary powerplay shooter who plays more than 75% of available PP time for the Rangers. The Islanders have given up the 4th most shots to Zibanejad’s position this season but have been better lately. The Rangers top line has been excellent all season and Zibanejad is a big reason for that. Expect his trend to continue this evening against the Islanders.