By The Numbers: Best Bets on Tonight’s NHL Games Using Analytics (3/14)

If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! A matchup with significant playoff implications between the Islanders and Sabres, and Original 6 matchup between Montreal and Boston, and two contenders face off with Florida in Carolina. There are 12 games in the NHL tonight starting at 7 PM ET and quite a few spots with value to make some money.

Thursday's 12 game slate includes the @NHLFlyers hosting the @MapleLeafs on @ESPNPlus and @Hulu as the Atlantic and Metropolitan Division's third-place teams will look to solidify their playoff positioning.#NHLStats: https://t.co/uXUUpUHIcU pic.twitter.com/BMXJPsfMZj

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 14, 2024

Top Total Line

Ottawa vs Columbus Under 6.5 (-120)

Let’s kick things off with my favorite kind of play, the one where the trends match the data. Both of these teams have gone under this line in 7 of their last 10 games. In their last 10 games, both teams have scored 3 goals or less on 5 occasions. The scoring has dried up for both teams and while it is entirely possible that bad goaltending comes to play today, the numbers do not back that. Both teams are under 15% on their pweroplay over the last 2 weeks and are not generating many powerplay opportunities to begin with. The Senators have more offensive weapons with Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson and Giroux, but have struggled to parlay that into goal scoring success. The Blue Jackets have struggled to score all season and will be without top line sniper, Yegor Chinakhov. Krill Marchenko returns to the lineup, but the lineup loses one of its best remaining offensive weapons and will struggle to generate offense in tonight’s game. Both Betalytics and my model have this going under 6 goals tonight, making this a strong play. Anton Forsberg has been much better of late for the Senators and without offensive firepower, the Senators are capable of keeping the puck out of their net. I’m very excited to watch these teams score 11 goals, somehow. 

Top Shot Props

Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots (-180)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Vegas is missing plenty of offensive weapons up front and have relied on Marchessault and Eichel to carry the load. Calgary has been bleeding shots since trading away Hanifin (to Vegas) and Tanev. Vegas plays a heavy game that relies on forechecking, hitting and puck recoveries, the exact style that a depleted defensive corps struggles against. Marchessault has been a consistent trigger man for the Golden Knights, averaging almost 11 shot attempts in his last 5 games. Given Calgary’s inability to suppress shot attempts, it is a golden opportunity for him to pile up the shots. More importantly, Calgary is taking more penalties and Marchessault is a primary shooter on the top pwerplay unit. Without one of the best shot blockers in the game, Calgary has not been able to suppress shots while shorthanded. Given that it is Noah Hanifin’s first game against his old team, the Golden Knights will have some extra motivation to win this one and Marchessault should be firing the puck all night. The model projects him for 3.89 shots, making him a fun ladder candidate.

Cole Caufield Over 3.5 Shots (-140)

This is an obvious mismatch between teams, as Boston is one of the best teams in the NHL and Montreal is one of the worst. However, Caufield has been a bright spot for Montreal and has hit this line in 6 consecutive games and 9 of his last 10. Another primary powerplay trigger man, Caufield pounds the puck and is always lurking for scoring chances. Boston is averaging close to 5 minutes of shorthanded time over the last 2 weeks, and Caufield plays a significant portion of the powerplay. The model’s project him for close to 5 shots tonight, a line he’s hit in 3 of his last 10. Given Boston’s defensive strength, he is not a recommended ladder candidate, but have confidence in taking over 3.5 shots tonight given his projection and trend.

Top Point Props

Bryan Rust Over 0.5 Points (-150)

Let’s not overthink this. The Penguins are playing the San Jose Sharks. Pittsburgh has had their offensive issues of late, but we’re talking about the Sharks. This team has surrendered 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. You’re licking your chops as an offensive player when the Sharks are across the ice. Without Hertl and Couture for the rest of the season, the Sharks will struggle to matchup against anyone, specifically a guy who plays with one of the best players in hockey history – Sidney Crosby. The model give shim a 65% chance of recording a point tonight. Frankly, every Penguins forward in the top-6 should be a shoe-in for a point tonight. Don’t overthink this, fade the Sharks.

Chris Kreider Over 0.5 Points (-160)

Kreider is playing his best hockey right now and the Rangers are benefitting. He’s an impact player every time he touches the ice and is projected to play a big role in tonight’s game against Tampa Bay. Tampa has given up 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. Kreider has a point in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10. Tonight, he’s got an 85% chance of recording a point, which par surpasses the implied odds of his line. He’s generating scoring chances, sees primary powerplay time and is a difference maker for the Rangers. The Lightning defence is struggling to defend teams with speed and Kreider’s calling card is his speed. He’s lethal in transition and gets to the net front with ease. Count on him to wreak havoc tonight in what should be a fantastic game.

Goal Scorer Props

Jason Robertson (+135)

Robertson has a goal in 3 of last 5 and 5 of his last 10. New Jersey cannot keep the puck out of their net and their young defensemen struggle to defend against bigger teams. Dallas plays a big, heavy style that will cause problems for the Devils tonight. If Jake Allen can’t handle the siege he will likely be under, expect Robertson to find the scoresheet. Betalytics gives him a 49% chance of scoring a goal, making this a valuable line at +135.

Kirill Kaprizov (-120)

The Wild are playing the Anaheim Ducks who are one of the worst teams in league. Furthermore, the Wild are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and Kirill the Thrill is a big reason they are still in it. Betalytics gives him a 60% of scoring a goal tonight, while my model has him with a 64% chance. The line has some juice on it, but Kaprizov has lit the lamp in 4 of his last 5 games and has 7 goals over that span. A sprinkle on him to score 2+ tonight with Eriksson Ek out of the lineup is worth the money. He’s been red hot and no one should expect him to slow down against the lottery bound Anaheim Ducks.