By the Numbers: Today’s Best Bets in the NHL (4/6)

The playoff races are white hot and we’ve got a beautiful slate of games today in the NHL. The Flyers look to bounce back against Columbus, Florida and Boston renew acquaintances and the Battle of Alberta caps off the first weekend of April games in the NHL. There are 11 games in the NHL today starting 1PM ET, so let’s hit the lab to find the best bets for today’s games!  As always, these picks are model-based from Betalytics and my model. If you want access to all of the Betalytics models to build your bankroll, get access below!

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Best Game Bets

Tampa Bay ML (-105)

This could be the game of the day when you consider what is at stake. The Lightning clinched a playoff spot last night and are rounding into form as the post-season approaches. The Penguins were all but out, leading their GM to trade Jake Guentzel. Fast forward, Sidney Crosby has willed his team into the race and today’s matinee is a big one.

A 1PM ET start, the Penguins need to continue their run of excellent play to have a chance in this one. Tampa has been excellent over the last month and are very difficult to beat when they are playing their best hockey. In a tight matchup this afternoon, Tampa has the edge against the Penguins, with a 55% chance to win. Given they are the underdog in this matchup, this is a value play. Nearly 7 goals are projected for this afternoon’s game, giving Tampa the edge in a high scoring affair. The Penguins have been hot, but the Lightning are the better team, which should get them over the top today.

Boston ML (-118)

The Bruins are 7-3 in this last 10, while the Panthers finally broke out of their rut, shutting out the Ottawa Senators on Thursday. The Panthers are leaking major oil and are getting no help in today’s matchup. While Thursday’s win should have them feeling a little better about themselves, Boston is a team that is cranking up the intensity for the playoffs. These teams are heading in opposite directions right now and this line is too short on the Bruins.

While the teams are evenly matched when in form, that is not the case right now. The Bruins have a projected 56% xWin in today’s game, and it is expected to be well under the total of 6. The Bruins have played in a ton low scoring games over the last fortnight and have been defensively sound over that span. The Panthers are banged up with injuries and that does not bode well for their matchup against the division leaders. Expect the stars to play well in this one, with Boston coming out on top.

Best Player Prop Bets

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots (+105)

Today’s Best Bet is a value play! Hyman isn’t the most likely player to hit is line, but the combination of trend, projection and value on the line makes this today’s best bet. In the Battle of Alberta, with Vegas hot on their heels, the Oilers will rely on Zach Hyman to tilt the ice. He, McDavid and Draisaitl have been excellent for the Oilers and will need to be on the second night of a back to back. Hyman has hit this line in 9 of his last 10 games and is averaging 4.5 shots on goal over his last 30 games. The Oilers winger is projected for 4.47 shots in tonight’s contest and has a 63% chance to go over his line. With implied odds of 46% on his line, this is an excellent spot to back Hyman.

Joel Farabee Over 1.5 Shots (-180)

The Flyers need to stop their skid if they want to make the playoffs and Joel Farabee is a big part of that. Coming off a tough loss on Friday night, the Flyers need to beat Columbus to get back in the win column. Farabee has hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games. Columbus bleeds shots and the Flyers should come out desperate. Farabee is in a great spot to hit his line, with an 81% matchup rating, the 3rd highest of the day. Columbus has given up the most shots in the league over the last 20 months, more than San Jose! Farabee plays on the second powerplay unit and shares the shot attempts with Own Tippett. He’s hit his line with relative ease lately, recording 2+ shots in 8 of 10. Against the lowly Blue Jackets in a desperate situation, expect Farabee to be around the net creating scoring opportunities.

The Art Ross Parlay: Kucherov 1+ Assist & McDavid 1+ Assist (+121)

Two of the games top players battling it out for the league scoring title. Connor McDavid is three assists from recording the first 100 assist season since Wayne Gretzky in 1990-91. McDavid has 5 assists in his last 5 games against Calgary and is coming off a 2-goal performance against Colorado on Friday. Since the turn of the calendar, McDavid has played 41 games and been held without an assist only 10 times, including 2 straight against Dallas and Colorado. He’s recording multi-assist games in 19 of those 41 games, meaning he’s twice s likely to record multiple assists than he is to record none. He has not gone 3 games without an assist since the middle of November. He’s a good bet for a helper tonight, projected for 1.3 assists against Calgary.

Kucherov is leading the league in scoring, largely on the back of 90 assists which is only overshadowed by McDavid’s historic run. Kucherov is projected to have a 76% chance of recurring an assist against the Penguins this afternoon. In a critical game for both teams for playoff positioning, expect Kucherov to be at his very best. He creates a ton of scoring chances for himself and his teammates, plays 70% of the available powerplay time and is the offensive driver of the team. The puck goes through him on nearly every offensive zone possession. He’s recorded three assists in two games against Pittsburgh this season, look for him to continue the trend this afternoon.