By The Numbers: Today’s Best NHL Bets (4/2)

No April Foolin’ around here, we swept the board on Saturday. If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! Jeff Skinner plays his 1000th game tonight, the Devils and Penguins face off, and a key matchup between Vegas and Vancouver.  There are 8 games in the NHL today, starting at 7PM ET, let’s get in the lab.

The @PredsNHL, @GoldenKnights and @Capitals can strengthen their grip on playoff positions during an eight-game slate Tuesday. #StanleyCup#NHLStats: https://t.co/I6AzxctbYS pic.twitter.com/PY2zctOs2T

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 2, 2024

Top Game Lines

Vegas ML (-130)

The Golden Knights take on the Vancouver Canucks tonight in a Pacific Division matchup. Thatcher Demko did travel but it is expect that Casey DeSmith will get the start against Logan Thompson in tonight’s matchup. The Golden Knights have been much better of late, scoring 3+ in 7 of their last 10, while holding teams to 2 or less in 5 of those matchups. Theodore, Pietrangelo and Hanifin are winning their defensive matchups with ease and it is becoming a nightmare for other teams to deal with. Both teams have played in low scoring games recently and Vegas has the slight advantage in those games because of their defensive depth. This should be a tight game, but Vegas’ ability to shut down the Canucks offensive depth will play a key role in tonight’s matchup. The model gives Vegas a 56% chance to win tonight, while Betlytics has the under with a 53% chance of hitting. There are plenty of betting opportunities in this matchup, but we’re backing the home team to win.

Top Player Props

Connor Bedard 1+ Point (-190)

The Blackhawks get the Islanders on the second half of a back to back tonight. The rookie sensation has been excellent since returning from a broken jaw, dropping jaws with his play. The line has some serious juice, but using it as a parlay piece could be the move. Bedard has points in 7 of his last 10. He’s getting a ton of shot attempts and has put up 23 shots in his last 5 games. The Islanders have been awful defensively of late, giving up 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. Bedard figures in on a ton of Chicago’s offensive schemes and is the primary weapon on the powerplay that is 21% over the last two weeks. Against a team on a back to back that is struggling defensively, Bedard should figure in on at least 1 or 2 of Chicago’s goals tonight. The model gives him a 71% chance of recording a point tonight. Let’s ride with the rookie sensation.

Jeff Skinner 1+ Point (+100)

A total narrative pick. Jeff Skinner is the narrative king. He’s playing his 1000th NHL game tonight and the Sabres are playing in their black and red goat head uniforms tonight. The Sabres, for some unknown reason, always play well in the goat head uniforms. On special occasions, teams always try to find the guy whose night it is. Skinner has a knack for scoring in games like this and sprinkle on his goal prop is worth it. Betalytics has Skinner with a 50% chance of recording a point and given that he’s been pointless in his last 5, it’s a great time to get back on the scoresheet. At +100, we’re backing the narrative that the Sabres get Skinner on the scoresheet tonight against Washington in a crucial matchup battle for the playoffs.

Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots (-125)

Eichel has hit this line with ease this season and tonight should be no different. He’s gone over in 4 of 5 and 8 of 10, and has 6 shots in both games against the Canucks this season. Eichel and Marchessault are primary shooters for the Golden Knights is racking up the shot attempts of late. He plays 70% of the available powerplay minutes, nearly three minutes per game. The Canucks give up nearly 5 shots per game while shorthanded and Eichel will likely account for 1 or 2 of those. With even strength opportunities, Eichel should have plenty of key offensive situations to take advantage of. It is a key game for the Golden Knights in the playoff race and they need a win to sit comfortably in the third place divisional seed. They’ll need Eichel to step up and he’s projected for 5.36 shots, well over his line of 3.5.

Brock Nelson Over 2.5 Shots (-142)

After a crucial win in overtime against the Flyers on Monday night, the Islanders need to follow it up with a win against the Blackhawks. On the second half or a back to back, the Islanders will turn to Ilya Sorokin to keep Connor Bedard off the scoresheet. Brock Nelson scored the OT winner on Monday and while he’s struggled to put up points over the last fortnight, he’s getting shot attempts. The Blackhawks are porous defensively and there is no reason to believe the Islanders won’t put up 32+ shots against them, tonight. In a desperate situation, Roy will turn to his key players in Horvat, Brazil and Nelson. They’ll get a ton of offensive zone starts, powerplay opportunities and will be expected to produce offensive. Betalytics gives Nelson a 58% chance to hit the over, while my model has it at 64% and a projection of 3.39 shots in tonight’s game.