By The Numbers: Top Bets on Today’s NHL Games (3/21)

If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! March Madness kicked off today and there are plenty of betting opportunities across sports. We’ve got some great matchups in the NHL today with the Bruins taking on the Rangers, a playoff battle between the Islanders and Red Wings, and another edition of “Slackin for Macklin” between Anaheim and Chicago. There are 11 games in the NHL tonight starting at 7 PM ET, and we’re on a heater with these picks, so let’s get in the lab.

Thursday's 11-game slate is highlighted by the @FlaPanthers hosting the @PredsNHL on @hulu and @ESPNPlus as well as the @SeattleKraken and @GoldenKnights facing off on @ESPN.#NHLStats: https://t.co/ssDpfYAPYX pic.twitter.com/2KYsMaSEAg

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 21, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-155)

This play is only valid if Andrei Vasilevskiy plays. The model expects him to play, given that Tampa has a back to back this weekend with LA and Anaheim, where he will get a night off. The Sharks have lost more games by 2 goals than any other team this season and have given up 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10, while scoring 3+ only three times in their last 10. On the flip side, Tampa has scored 4+ in 6 of their last 10 while giving up 4+ only twice. This is a case of not overthinking it and trusting that one of the most talented offensive gorups in the league will overwhelm one of the worst teams in the salary cap era.

Top Player Props

Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots (-132)

Jack Eichel and Golden Knights face off against the Seattle Kraken in a crucial game for Vegas’ playoff hopes with Minnesota and and St. Louis chasing them for a Wild Card spot. Eichel is projected to sail over his number tonight given that all of the Golden Knights offense runs through him and Jonathan Marchessault. Eichel has a nearly 70% chance to hit his line tonight and given that he’s averaging 7+ shot attempts per game recently, his accuracy should allow him to clear this line against a Kraken team that struggles to defend other team’s top players.

Jakob Chychrun Over 2.5 Shots (-150)

When the trend and the models matchup, it’s the best! Chychrun has been firing the puck at will of late and there’s not reason to think it stops against St. Louis. Chychrun has hit his line with ease lately, hitting 9 of his last 10 and averaging 3.9 shots. St. Louis gives up shots from the perimeter where Chychrun finds himself. He’s projected for nearly 4 shots tonight and a 63% chance to go over his line. Alternatively, parlay Chychrun’s 2+ line with Brady Tkachuk’s 3+ line is another way to get some money on two of the league’s voluminous shooters over the last 2 weeks. Both players are likely to go over their lines tonight, but we’re backing the perimeter shooter who’s consistently on the mark.

Fade the Sharks Parlay

Let’s get a little spicy. Tampa Bay is playing the lowly San Jose Sharks and we’ve already locked in the Lightning at -1.5. Using BetAlytics and my model, let’s cook up a Same Game Parlay to take advantage of the game narrative.

Kucherov 1+ Assist, Hedman 1+ Point, Stamkos 1+ Point, Duclair 2+ Shots (+245)

Here’s the simple breakdown. Kucherov has 1+ assist in 11 straight games and 13 of 15. He’s an offensive beast and the Sharks haven’t been able to slow down any offense this season, never mind one of the best offensive talents in the game. There are no edges on any of his lines tonight, meaning we have to have him in a parlay. The only straight play to consider is his 2+ assists line.

Hedman is the quarterback of the Tampa powerplay that has scored at the 30% success rate over their last 5 games. Herman factors in heavily to Tampa’s offensive scheme and is relied upon in the absence of Mikhail Sergachev. Hedman has a point in 7 of his last 10 and 68% of his last 25 games. He’s consistently getting on the board for Tampa.

Stamkos has points in all of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10. He’s been red hot the last month and it comes at the perfect time for Tampa. While he isn’t the player he once was, Stamkos shreds lesser competition. Given his hot streak and importance in the Tampa offensive powerhouse, Stamkos will get his powerplay chances and both models give him a near 80% chance of recording a point.

Anthony Duclair has been a great fit in Tampa and returns to play the team that traded him a few weeks ago. Duclair has consistent hit his shot line in Tampa, 4 of his last 5 and 7 of 10. Not only that, Duclair will be motivated facing off against his former team, who has conceded nearly 100 more shots than any other this season.

There’s a lot to like about this parlay and if you’re feeling extra spicy, Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel are other point options to include.