By The Numbers: What The Analytics Say About Betting Tonight’s NHL Slate

If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! There are a few great matchups tonight between contenders, and another edition of the “Slackin for Macklin” Bowl between Columbus and Chicago. Games are on all day, but let’s look at how some of these matchups could play out from an analytical perspective.

A jam-packed Saturday schedule will see 26 teams hit the ice across 12 hours of continuous action that gets started at 12:30 p.m. ET. #NHLStats: https://t.co/6YEhoTX1nb pic.twitter.com/Ilxt3CflJm

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 2, 2024

 

Penguins vs Flames: To Trade or Not to Trade

A lot of eyeballs will be on this matchup tonight, as both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture and could be active heading into Friday’s trade deadline. Both goaltenders are on the fringes of the Vein conversation, while Connor Hellebuyck will win the trophy, Jarry and Markstrom have been two of the best goalies this season. The Penguins create the third highest expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 this season, usually the hallmark of a good team. They’re average defensively and excellent in goal, but they’ve scored far less than the models expect and part of that is their inability to convert high danger chances. They rank 2nd in high danger chances per 60, but 29th in ability to convert high danger chances. Calgary,

Pittsburgh has a positive expected goals differential, while Calgary’s is slightly negative. Expect Pittsburgh to control the play, cycle the puck and get shots on goal. All signs point to Pittsburgh having the advantage on paper tonight with elite skill and better even strength play. However, special teams has been an achilles heal for the Penguins, their shooting percentage is dead last. While they create chances, they aren’t capitalizing and are giving too much up, shorthanded. Don’t expect a high scoring game between two teams who rely on excellent goaltending and have struggled to convert their scoring chances this season.

Kris Letang has been shooting the puck consistently and is projected to clear his line of 1.5 shots with ease tonight. Letang sees heavy offensive zone time and premier power play minutes. While the Penguins power play may not be converting, they generate opportunities and Letang is a big part of that. Without Chris Tanev on the penalty kill, Calgary will have to rely on others to step up and block shots. On the other side, Rasmus Andersson has been better with his 1.5 SOG line, of late. He will be relied upon to take some of Tanev’s ice time and will have more opportunities to jump in the rush tonight. Two other forwards to watch, Reilly Smith and Mikael Backlund. Both players are projected to go over their shots on goal lines tonight, with Backlund hitting his in 4 of 5 and Smith in 7 of 10.

Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks: Slackin For Macklin

Two of the worst teams battle it out in the latest edition of Slackin For Macklin (Celebrini). Both teams have been awful this season, and the lone bright spot in this game is Connor Bedard. Given that both teams have talented, young players, this should be a fun one to watch. Both teams are struggling to score, failing to score 2 goals in 4 of their last 10 games, respectively. However, both teams have given up 4+ goals in at least 5 of their last 10 games. That’s a recipe for losses, but someone has to win this one.

Neither team has performed well on special teams lately, with the Blackhawks penalty kill struggling mightily. The only saving grace is that the Blue Jackets power play has been equally awful. It’s giving immoveable object meets an unstoppable force vibes. While neither team is particularly good, there are a few plays worth watching and matchups worth betting on.

Connor Bedard and Kirill Marchenko are both projected to go over lines of 2.5 shots. Both players have been primary shooters for their teams and in Bedard’s case, he will be able to take advantage of a struggling Blue Jackets defensive corps. Both are power play triggermen and are projected for closer to 3 shots on goal with an above 65% to hit their lines. Johnny Gaudreau 1+ assist has some value, as he’s 55% to record an assist tonight, with value on any line close to -105. Zach Werenski is 74% to record a point in the game, given his line of -145 some value, too.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs: Battle of Original 6 Contenders

One of the games of the night will see the New York Rangers take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto has scored 4+ goals in 8 of their last 10, while the Rangers have allowed 2 or less in 6 of 10. While the Leafs have consistently hit the over in their games since All-Star break, the Rangers’ defensive play has picked up and become much more difficult to score on. The Leafs create far more than the Rangers do at 5on5 and both teams give up ~2.7 goals per 60. The Rangers have slightly better goaltending at 5on5, which could be a key difference maker in tonight’s matchup.

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are one of he NHL’s most dynamic duos this season, with Marner recording 1+ assist in 8 of his last 10 games. Both players average a point per game against the Rangers in their careers, while Matthews averages 0.5 goals/game. This season, he’s playing well above that pace and has scored 2 goals in each of the last two meetings between the Leafs and Rangers. Given the pace both these teams play at, the skill throughout the lineup with each team having three lines capable of scoring, tonight’s total is expected to go over. The Leafs and Rangers went over the total in both games this year, and are projected for 6.84 goals in tonight’s matchup. If there are going to be goals, expect the main characters to be involved on both sides. Tavares is thriving in a third line role, Panarin loves playing the Leafs and Chris Kreider will utilize his speed to generate his fair share of chances off the rush.