UEFA Champions League Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (2/19)

Today is the final day of knockout round matches in the UEFA Champions League. We now have 12 spots filled in the Round of 16 after four teams punched their ticket yesterday. Congrats to Feyenoord Rotterdam, Club Brugge, Bayern Munich and Benfica who joined our Top 8 in the bracket. Now let’s dive in to today’s best bets and see who else will advance to the next round!

Remember, matches today are the second leg of a two leg contest between teams for a spot in the UCL bracket. Teams need to leave it all out on the field, as this could be it. We already have 12 teams slotted in the Round of 16, but tonight we will fill the remaining spots on the bracket. Below are my best bets in the UCL today, but for our expert’s soccer picks, go to this page here!

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UEFA Champions League: Wednesday’s Soccer Action

Keep in mind, as this is the 2nd leg of the knockout phase, lines are adjusted and as sharp as they can be. Most bets made will be final after 90 minutes of play, even if the match continues into extra time to break an aggregate tie.

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP Best Bets

Borussia Dortmund lead 3-0 on aggregate

Heavy Lean: Sporting CP/Draw Double Chance (+100) BetOnline

This matchup seems all but over. Dortmund not only leads 3-0 going into this contest, but they are also (-120) favorites at home. I don’t see the Germans playing too hard in this match and focusing mainly on defense. They could lose 2-0 and still advance, but I’m sure they show up with a bit of pride for their fans.

On the flip side, Sporting will need to be on the all out attack. Needing a three goal victory on the road just to force extra time will be incredibly tough against the Dortmund backline. Personally I’ll be staying away from this matchup, but Sporting ML at (+318), Draw No Bet at (+215) and Sporting/Draw Double Chance at (+100) are all very enticing given the motivation in this match.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+600)

Paris Saint-Germain vs Brest Best Bets

PSG lead 3-0 on aggregate

Best Bets: PSG/Brest Under 3.5 (-110) BetOnline

Here we have another similar scenario. PSG is up three goals facing much inferior competition at home. However we will be backing the under in this matchup, as I think it is priced too high.

For starters, we only saw three goals in the first match, all coming from the PSG side. Both teams produced 16 total attempts, but PSG put 7 on target and 3 in the back of the net while Brest only tested the keeper twice. PSG controlled over 60% of possession in that game, but conceded three more corners than their hosts. Back at home with a three goal lead, I do not see PSG being as aggressive as they were. Sure, they will try to control the possession plenty, which they had success doing, but I don’t see much of a push forward from the French.

Brest, like Sporting, has no choice but to bring the attack every chance they get, however this is not an offense I would trust. This will be the third meeting between these teams in the past three weeks. On February 1st, PSG beat Brest in Ligue 1 on the road by a score of 5-2. Last week they took them down again in the UCL, winning 3-nil. Now they are up three goals on aggregate, and I see them toying with their visitors for the entire 90 minutes, keeping this low scoring.

Prediction: PSG Wins 2-0 (+550)

PSV vs Juventus Best Bets

Juventus lead 2-1 on aggregate

Best Bets: PSV/Juventus Draw (+265) BetOnline

The Italians have a one goal lead over PSV, but now they travel to Holland and face their foe on the road. When they played in Torino last week, Juventus found a first half goal about 10 minutes before halftime. PSV tied it up early in the 2nd half, but conceded the winner in the 82nd minute for a Juventus win.

Now PSV is back at home with plenty of motivation. PSV controlled 53% of possession in the last match and produced three more total attempts, however Juventus had more on target. Juventus put 8 of their 12 attempts on target while PSV managed just 2 of their 15 on frame. The Dutch will certainly need to hone in the accuracy at home tonight.

Ultimately, I see both teams finding the back of the net, but have no interested in paying (-160) for that bet. I’m intrigued by Over 2.5 for (-130), but will hold off as I see this finishing in a 1-1 draw. Just to have some fun, we’re going to sprinkle on draw at the best number we can find and hope for the best.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+550)

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Best Bets

Real Madrid lead 3-2 on aggregate

Heavy Lean: Real Madrid/Man City Under 3.5 (-112) BetOnline

Ah yes, the match of the night. Last week, we saw a THRILLER between these teams. None other than Erling Haaland opened the scoring less than 20 minutes into the game. Real Madrid couldn’t find an equalizer until the 60th minute, but then conceded a penalty in the 80th minute. Haaland converted from the spot, and Manchester City led 2-1 with 10 minutes to play.

But then things got weird.

Real Madrid battled and found another equalizer less than 6 minutes later to tie up the match, and they weren’t done! Jude Bellingham netted the winner in stoppage time as Real Madrid beat Man City on the road, 3-2. Now Madrid are back in Spain hosting City with a one goal aggregate lead. The Spanish hosts have a very beat up back line, missing names such as David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and Antonio Rudiger. However the reserves have been stepping up when needed.

Haaland has been dealing with an undisclosed injury, and while I see him listed as Doubtful for this match, I have to assume he tries to take the pitch. Manchester City needs to advance as far as they can in the UCL to save the club who will likely be relegated after their point penalty is assessed in the EPL. The point is, Manchester City cares immensely about the UCL (so does Real Madrid) but winning on the road will be a tough task.

Real Madrid is (-104) to win this match and (-500) to advance to the Round of 16. To me, the books are telling you they win again today and book their ticket to the next round. If I had to bet this game, I’d place the under 3.5, but instead I’ll just enjoy some soccer.

Prediction: Real Madrid Wins 2-1 (+850)

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