UEFA Champions League: Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (3/12)

As the UEFA Champions League returns today for the final leg of the Round of 16 matches, let’s take a look at the teams who have already made it to the quarterfinals. Congratulations to Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and PSG for advancing to the next round. Now we have four more teams hopeful to punch their ticket, so let’s dive in to our best bets in the UCL.

Remember, matches today are the second and final leg between the teams. There are no extra incentives for scoring on the road, and teams simply need to win on aggregate score to advance to the quarterfinals. Below are my best bets in the UCL today, but for our expert’s soccer picks, go to this page here!

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UEFA Champions League: Wednesday’s Soccer Action

Keep in mind lines are adjusted and as sharp as they can be. This is the 2nd leg of these contests, so most bets will be settled after a 90 minute result, even if the match continues. If teams are still tied on aggregate after 90 minutes, they will be extra time and possibly a PK shootout to decide a winner.

Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Best Bets

Tied 1-1 on aggregate

Heavy Lean: Lille Draw No Bet (-108) BetOnline

It’s just a lean for now, but it may turn in to an actual wager by the morning. Lille is unbeaten at home in the Champions League this season, and Dortmund’s attack could be a question mark on the road. They were beaten at home this weekend in the Bundesliga, perhaps a sign that they were looking ahead.

What scares me a bit, is the fact that Dortmund are certainly out of contention in the Bundesliga. They are 10th on the table and need to perform well if they want to be back in the UCL next season. After opening up the first match with a quick home goal, Dortmund conceded in the 68th minute. Both teams only had one shot on target, which found the back of the net, but Lille had more shots and won the possession battle.

I see this match being settled in extra time, or before 90 minutes if the hosts choose to play more aggressive. Lille doesn’t have the highest powered offense, but their back line is coming off a home shutout, and I see them holding strong. For excitement purposes, I hope this goes to extra time and potentially PKs.

Prediction: Lille Wins 1-0 (+800)

Arsenal vs PSV Best Bets

Arsenal lead 7-1 on aggregate

No Bets or Leans in this Match

With Arsenal leading by six goals and being back at home, they could certainly sit back and lose by a ton. I’m not sure who may or may not be in the lineup for the Gunners, but they will certainly rest whomever they can with such a big lead. While it wouldn’t surprise me for PSV to win this match outright, it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Gunners come out screaming again.

I expected a low scoring contest the first time, considering they were beat up on the attack and on the road. But then they went out and netted 7 goals on 15 shots, 8 of them on target. They conceded more corners and lost the possession battle, but it really didn’t mater considering nearly everything on frame went in.

The Gunners will no doubt advance, but their motivation being questionable for this match is enough for me to stay off.

Aston Villa vs Club Brugge Best Bets

Aston Villa lead 3-1 on aggregate

Best Bets: Aston Villa/Club Brugge Under 3 (-120) BetOnline

We were burned on the under in the first matchup, as Villa scored two goals late. But in this second meeting at home, I think they might be more conservative. They know they are capable of stopping Brugge, who produced only 3 shots on target and 3 corner kicks.

At home, I trust Aston Villa to handle business and keep Club Brugge from getting the same chances they did in Belgium. Aston Villa is not looking ahead to anything as their next match is in a couple of weeks. They can play whomever they would like and bring a full strength squad to this match at home, where they already lead by two.

I see them sitting back and holding off the Belgian attack for most of the game, but they might find a winner on the counter attack.

Prediction: Aston Villa Wins 1-0 (+775)

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Best Bets

Real Madrid lead 2-1 on aggregate

Best Bet: Real Madrid Draw No Bet (-104) Bovada

Once again, we get a Madrid Derby as Real go to Atlético with a one goal lead. They completely dominated the first match, but can they keep it up for round two?

Real Madrid not only controlled over 51% of possession, they outshot Atlético by a large margin (13-6), had more shots on target (7-2), and produced more corner kicks (6-3). This is the 4th meeting between these rivals this season, as the first two ended in 1-1 draws with Real winning the last meeting. Atlético will have to give it everything they’ve got, and being at home certainly improves their chances. Rodrygo opened up the scoring in the 4th minute, and I doubt the hosts let that happen again.

Although Real Madrid is barely favored in this game, they are -300 to advance while Atlético is +235. To me, this tells us that Real will get the job done on the road no matter what it takes. For (-104), I am more than willing to accept some push potential and back the better rival in this spot. Despite struggling through the league phase of the UCL, Real Madrid battled against Manchester City and took down Atlético in the first leg.

The defending champions are hungry to go further in this competition, and I think they do just that.

Prediction: Real Madrid Wins 2-1 (+900)

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