Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: Will Antonelli Go Back-to-Back at Suzuka?

Two weeks ago, Kimi Antonelli made history as the youngest pole winner in Formula 1 history and followed it up with his first Grand Prix win. Will the fresh-faced Mercedes driver make it two wins in two at Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix?

In Shanghai, the 19-year-old beat teammate George Russell to a historic pole then repeated the feat to claim his first win.

Through two races, Russell and Antonelli occupy the top two spots in the Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship standings, ahead of Ferrari duo Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, the latter of whom earned his first Ferrari podium with a third-place finish in China.

The Mercedes monopoly looks likely to continue at Suzuka, as Antonelli, courtesy of his second consecutive pole, and Russell have locked out the front two spots on the grid once again. And at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, a second straight win for the Italian is the favored outcome.

This will be the last race until May 3, a gap of five weeks. Due to the ongoing conflict in the region, the Bahrain Grand Prix (scheduled for April 12) and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix (scheduled for April 19) were both canceled. Therefore, the Miami Grand Prix now becomes the fourth race of the season, and the complete 2026 schedule will now consist of 22 races, provided no more cancelations occur.

2026 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Information

• Race: Formula 1 Aramco Japanese Grand Prix 2026 (Race 3 of 22)
• Location: Suzuka, Japan (Suzuka International Racing Course)
• Lap Length: 3.608 miles (5.807 kilometers)
• Race Length: 53 laps

2026 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, March 28, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET.

Odds to Win the Japanese Grand Prix

Japanese Grand Prix Podium Finish Odds

Note: Because three drivers finish on the podium, these percentages represent relative likelihood rather than each driver's true standalone probability.

Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Starting Grid

Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Predictions and Picks

Total Classified Drivers Under 17.5 (-105 at BetOnline)

This market is not available at Lucky Rebel (at least not at the time of writing), but it is among the Japanese Grand Prix markets offered at BetOnline.

This particular bet featured in the Chinese Grand Prix picks and cashed, as there were seven non-classified drivers. Max Verstappen (retired on lap 46), Fernando Alonso (retired on lap 33, and Lance Stroll (retired on lap 10) did not complete the race, while Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris (both electrical issues), Gabriel Bortoleto, and Alexander Albon (both hydraulics issues) did not even start the race.

This followed a similarly attritional Formula 1 season opener, as the Australian Grand Prix finished with six drivers non-classified.

With Aston Martin currently an abject disaster, there aren't even odds on Alonso and Stroll to complete the Japanese Grand Prix. Alonso retired in both Melbourne and Shanghai, while Stroll completed only 43 laps in the opener and retired last time out. Another double DNF/DNS for the two of them leaves just three other cars needing to come through.

Given that it is still early in the season and what occurred in the first two Grand Prix this season, I still expect at least a few incidents and issues to occur. With both of those factors in mind, these odds actually feel rather generous.

Arvid Lindblad to Finish in the Top 10 (+135 at BetOnline)

It has been a decent start for the lone rookie on this year's Formula 1 grid, as he finished eighth in his debut and 12^th the following week.

In both races, the 18-year-old finished better than he started. He started ninth and finished eighth in Melbourne and started 15^th and finished 12^th in Shanghai. Even if he finishes where he starts at Suzuka, Lindblad will score his second podium finish in three races, and I like his chances to do so, especially if things continue to be fine for the two Racing Bulls on the reliability front.