Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (3/21/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Fri Mar 20, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 10 minutes

Fair Grounds Picks

horses

The racing action from Fair Grounds on Saturday features the TwinspireStakes.com Louisiana Derby. The race features 100 Kentucky Derby points. @HandicappingT3 has all the Fair Grounds picks for the entire card!

100 point Prep Races

This weekend kicks off the 100 point Derby races. These races are significant because a win, or even a place, almost assuredly garner you a spot in the gate on the first Saturday in May. In these 100 point races the top 5 finishers get 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 points respectively. Horses are prioritized for the Derby from most points to least. If you rank 21 or below on the points list at the end of the prep season, you run the risk of watching the race from shed row.

Automatic Bid

Although there are still several preps to go, horses can clinch a spot in the starting gate this weekend. Since the start of the point system no horse with less than 45 points has been denied entry from the Derby. Earning 100 or even 50 for a runner up finish, puts less pressure on winning your final prep ahead of the race. Even if your favorite horse doesn't finish 1 or 2 this weekend, don't fret. Since 2016 horses as low as 20 points were able to get into the starting gate based on horses being withdrawn. This means that even third place runners this weekend may find themselves running for the roses.

Fair Grounds Full Card Analysis

Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (3/21/2026)

Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep (3/21/2026)

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Fair Grounds Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:00 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 9 runners.

  • #5 PREPPED (9-5): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
  • #1 ROAD TRIPPIN (6-1): Major Player. May be able to take advantage of the pace. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #6 FAST CONNECTION (6-1): Major Player. Should sit a good trip. Speed figs match up nicely.
  • #9 ROYAL CAUSEWAY (9-2): Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Could be ready to hit a peak performance.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 6 – 9

The Plays

Win: #5 at 2-1

Exacta Box: 5,1,6

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 12:30 PM CT; Fasig-Tipton Crescent City Oaks $100k; 1 M 70 Y Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

  • #2 BRAKEN POPPA (4-5): Top pick. Looks good based on the 93 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #1 THRILL SEEKER (3-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Likely to get forward position.
  • #4 FADE TO GOLD (8-1): Fringe Contender. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #3 CHICKA CHICK (20-1): Underneath. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Could be griding down the competition late.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3

The Plays

Win: #2 at 6-5

Exacta: 2/ 1,4

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:00 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #6 DOUBLE ENTENDRE (5-2): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Devaux.
  • #8 TIERNANOGUE (5-1): Major Player. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
  • #4 DIRECT STRIKE (3-1): Contender. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #3 GET THEM ROSES (12-1): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 6 – 8 – 4 – 3

The Plays

Win: #6 at 3-1

Exacta: 6/ 8,4

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 1:30 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

Longshot Play of the Day

  • #10 TAMINO (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Strong early pace figs. Barn has been solid. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
  • #3 GREAT MOMENT (6-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #8 ROCK MUSIC (7-2): Fringe Contender. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #4 EL MAXIMO (10-1): Underneath. Trainer's horses have been running. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.

Selections: 10 – 3 – 8 – 4

The Plays

Win: #10 at 4-1

Exacta: 10/ 3,8

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:00 PM CT; Allowance Optional Claiming $75k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #10 MISTER BANDERAS (4-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Strong early pace figs.
  • #4 DAPPER MOON (7-2): Major Player. Running well of late. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #6 FREE SCRIM (4-1): Major Player. The 87 speed rating is among the best in the field. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #5 ACHROMEDOUTCAT (9-2): Contender. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. Pedroza puts this one in with a chance.

Selections: 10 – 4 – 6 – 5

The Plays

Win: #10 at 9-2

Exacta Box: 10,4,6

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 2:30 PM CT; Tom Benson Memorial Stakes $150k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 7 runners.

  • #3 WAY TO BE MARIE (3-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #1 READY FOR SHIRL (7-2): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #7 GAVEA (6-1): Contender. Hard to argue with the recent races. Speed figs match up nicely.
  • #5 CUPIDS CRUSH (5-1): Contender. Recent races are solid. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 3 – 1 – 7 – 5

The Plays

Win: #3 at 7-2

Exacta Box: 3,1,7

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:00 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #1 CHIANTI TOWN (8-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 80 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Strong early pace figs.
  • #3 ARMET (6-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #9 NOT TO WORRY (4-1): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #10 MO THE MERRIER (9-2): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 9 – 10

The Plays

Win: #1 at 5-1

Exacta Box: 1,3,9

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:32 PM CT; Costa Rising Stakes $100k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 13 runners.

  • #1 NINE PART (3-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Barn has been solid.
  • #2 STRONG PROMISE (6-1): Major Player. Stamina to be in the mix late.
  • #5 MONSIEUR CANDY (9-2): Contender. Could wear these ones down late. Speed figs match up nicely.
  • #10 SMASH IT (10-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 5 – 10

The Plays

Win: #1 at 7-2

Exacta: 1/ 2,5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:04 PM CT; New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Hagyard $500k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

  • #2 TOUCHUPONASTAR (6-5): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly. Strong early pace figs.
  • #5 NOT THIS BOY (7-2): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #1 WESTWOOD (10-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Has experience at this level.
  • #4 LIFE AND TIMES (6-1): Major Player. Prat puts this one in with a chance. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 1 – 4

The Plays

Win: #2 at 6-5

Exacta Box: 2,5,1

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 4:36 PM CT; Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation $300k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 7 runners.

  • #4 LAGYNOS (2-1): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Stamina to outlast the competition.
  • #7 PROGRAM TRADING (9-5): Major Player. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #2 MONTADOR (7-2): Major Player. Gaffalione puts this one in with a chance. May be able find the right setup.
  • #1 CHASING THE CROWN (12-1): Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 4 – 7 – 2 – 1

The Plays

Win: #4 at 5-2

Exacta: 4/ 7,2

Pick 3 (races 10-12): #4,7,2 with #5 with #3,9,5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:08 PM CT; Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks $400k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

  • #5 BELLA BALLERINA (7-5): Best bet of the card. Stamina to outlast the competition. Should be able to work out a trip. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #6 LIFE OF JOY (4-1): Major Player. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #4 LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR (7-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. The 89 speed rating is among the best in the field.
  • #2 NEWTOWN PIKE (8-1): Contender. Could be ready to hit a peak performance. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 4 – 2

The Plays

Win: #5 at 1-1

Exacta: 5/ 6,4

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 5:42 PM CT; TwinspireStakes.com Louisiana Derby $1000k; 1 3/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

  • #3 CHIP HONCHO (3-1): Top pick. Saez and Asmussen team up on this one. Looks good based on the 97 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
  • #9 EMERGING MARKET (6-1): Major Player. Good race flow for this runner. Top connections on the circuit with Prat and Brown.
  • #5 GOLDEN TEMPO (7-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Ortiz puts this one in with a chance.
  • #1 PAVLOVIAN (6-1): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 3 – 9 – 5 – 1

The Plays

Win: #3 at 7-2

Exacta Box: 3,9,5,1

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 13

Post Time: 6:18 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 1 M Turf; Field of 15 runners.

  • #3 PRIMA DONNA (5-1): Top pick. Favorable class relief in this spot. Should still have something in the tank late.
  • #9 HEAVENLY MELODY (6-1): Major Player. Likely to take a step forward. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #5 GOOD FAMILY (8-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #13 MOTHERTWOTHEBLUES (20-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 3 – 9 – 5 – 13

The Plays

Win: #3 at 5-1

Exacta: 3/ 9,5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 14

Post Time: 6:48 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $75k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

  • #1 DIRTY STRAIGHT UP (9-5): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Favorable class relief in this spot.
  • #7 SLEWSSONGOFTHENILE (9-2): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #8 WILDLY WICKED (15-1): Contender. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #11 MY TOUCH (8-1): Fringe Contender. Could be griding down the competition late.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 8 – 11

The Plays

Win: #1 at 2-1

Exacta: 1/ 7,8

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Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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