AGA Vows to Fight Prediction Markets in U.S. Gaming

Jonathan Rodriguez

Written by: Jonathan Rodriguez

Published: Wed May 13, 2026, 11:00 am ET

Read Time: 3 minutes

AGA Vows to Fight Prediction Markets in U.S. Gaming

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The American Gaming Association (AGA) has pledged to "fight back" against prediction markets following its latest industry outlook on USA gambling. The report highlights strong momentum across regulated gaming. 

However, it also warns that prediction markets are becoming a major competitive and regulatory disruption. At the same time, the findings expose a divided industry facing both external pressure and internal fragmentation.

AGA Stance Against Prediction Markets and Regulatory Pressure

According to their report, the AGA identifies prediction markets as a key disruptor to the current gaming framework. It argues these platforms blur the line between financial trading and wagering. As a result, they challenge the structure supporting US online sportsbooks and US online casinos.

Notably, the AGA is directing criticism toward the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It argues the CFTC enables prediction markets through a "self-certification" process. This mechanism allows new contracts to launch without full pre-approval. 

Consequently, the AGA believes it creates regulatory gaps that prediction markets can exploit.

According to the report, 81% of gaming executives see prediction markets as a "very significant" threat. Operators warn that these platforms may siphon liquidity from regulated betting markets.

Moreover, they argue prediction markets often avoid the same tax burdens and compliance standards. Therefore, they create uneven competition across the legal gaming ecosystem.

Regulatory Response and a Fractured Industry Landscape

The AGA is now calling for stricter oversight or direct intervention. It wants clearer federal boundaries to prevent prediction markets from expanding unchecked. Additionally, it urges regulators to reassess how self-certified contracts enter the market under CFTC oversight.

However, the industry itself is no longer unified. Major operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel have withdrawn from the AGA. They are reportedly exploring or launching their own prediction-style products. This development has created what many observers describe as a "civil war" within the gaming sector.

On one side, traditional operators support stricter regulation. On the other hand, emerging competitors see prediction markets as an extension of innovation. 

Furthermore, tribal and commercial gaming groups remain largely aligned in their concerns. They warn that these platforms could weaken state-regulated frameworks that underpin USA gambling.

AGA Outlook: Growth, AI Efficiency, and a Divided Future

Despite regulatory concerns, the AGA report still presents a strong growth outlook for the industry. It projects continued expansion in revenue, investment, and consumer demand across regulated gaming markets.

At the same time, the report highlights a major shift toward efficiency. Around 50% of gaming executives say they are turning to AI to reduce costs and improve operations. This reflects growing pressure on margins even in a healthy market environment.

However, prediction markets remain the central uncertainty. The AGA warns they could reshape competition for US online sportsbooks and US online casinos if left unchecked. 

Ultimately, the report presents a dual reality. The industry is growing, yet increasingly fragmented and contested.

As a result, the next phase of USA gambling will likely be defined by two forces. These include tighter regulatory battles over prediction markets and accelerated adoption of AI-driven efficiency strategies.

Jonathan Rodriguez
Jonathan Rodriguez

Jonathan is an avid basketball fan, and is often looking forward to the next upcoming NBA season when not checking players' stats during games. He also likes to keep his ears on the ground for the latest rumblings in the online casino industry.

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