NFL Backs SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets

Jonathan Rodriguez

Written by: Jonathan Rodriguez

Published: Fri Oct 09, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 3 minutes

NFL Backs SCOTUS Review of Prediction Markets

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The National Football League (NFL) is urging the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) to intervene in the growing legal battle over sports prediction markets.

The league filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey's petition for review, arguing that sports event contracts threaten game integrity and consumer protection. Its intervention adds a major sports organization to the push for state oversight of prediction markets. 

The case could reshape how these platforms operate alongside licensed US online sportsbooks.

NFL Says Prediction Markets Undermine Existing Safeguards

In its brief, the NFL argued that traditional sportsbooks operate under state regulations designed to protect consumers and preserve fair competition. The league believes prediction markets offering contracts on NFL games should face comparable safeguards.

"The NFL has proactively engaged with legal sportsbooks and with state gaming authorities to support the enactment and enforcement of legislation and regulations designed to provide core integrity and consumer protections," the NFL said in the amicus brief. 

"But now a new form of sports betting has emerged that undermines these efforts and threatens game integrity: sports betting on prediction markets."

The league also raised concerns about the federal government's ability to oversee these markets effectively. It wants restrictions on contracts tied to potentially manipulable events, stronger protections against insider trading, and a minimum trading age of 21.

These concerns extend beyond game outcomes and traditional NFL odds. Prediction markets can offer contracts on individual plays and player performances. This raises questions about how regulators should address sensitive information and potential manipulation.

NFL Trading Volume Adds Urgency to the Dispute

The league also highlighted the growing scale of sports-related trading on prediction platforms. It told the Supreme Court that NFL contracts accounted for more than half of prediction-market trading volume on the season's first Sunday.

"Event contracts related to NFL games make up a substantial share of these markets' overall trading volume: On the first Sunday of this NFL season, more than half of all prediction-markets' trading volume – $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion total – related to the NFL," the league told the Supreme Court.

The figures underscore the league's argument that prediction markets have become too significant to leave unresolved regulatory questions. The NFL wants the justices to clarify the rules before another season passes under the current legal uncertainty.

Legal Dispute Centers on Federal and State Authority

At the heart of the case is whether sports event contracts qualify as financial swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Prediction-market operators, including Kalshi, argue that federal law places their exchanges under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) jurisdiction.

However, state regulators contend that contracts tied to sporting events function like wagers. They argue that operators should comply with state gambling laws and licensing requirements.

Conflicting federal appeals court decisions have intensified pressure on the Supreme Court. The Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi's favor, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits have supported state authority in separate disputes. New Jersey's petition seeks to resolve the disagreement over federal preemption.

The NFL supports the states' position. Its argument being that established gaming regulators are better equipped to enforce consumer protections and sports-integrity rules. Meanwhile, prediction-market operators maintain that federal oversight provides a more consistent framework.

Supreme Court Decision Could Shape Prediction Markets

The Supreme Court has not yet agreed to hear New Jersey's case. However, the NFL's amicus brief adds weight to calls for the justices to address the dispute.

If the Court takes the case, its ruling could determine whether states can regulate sports event contracts offered through federally registered prediction markets. The decision could also influence how these platforms compete with licensed sportsbooks and how sports-related markets operate nationwide.

For now, the legal battle remains unresolved. This leaves operators and regulators waiting for clarity on the future of sports prediction markets.

Jonathan Rodriguez
Jonathan Rodriguez

Jonathan is an avid basketball fan, and is often looking forward to the next upcoming NBA season when not checking players' stats during games. He also likes to keep his ears on the ground for the latest rumblings in the online casino industry.

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