2026 Indianapolis 500 Predictions, Picks & Odds: Palou Seeks Back-to-Back Brickyard Wins

Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun May 24, 2026, 6:00 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes

Misc.
Last year, Alex Palou checked off the last major items on his IndyCar to-do list by winning the Indianapolis 500. Can he become just the seventh repeat winner of the race? That will be on his agenda today as he leads the field in the 110th running of one of the greatest spectacles in sports.Top of Form
Entering last year's Indy 500, Palou had long established himself as the standard in the IndyCar Series, but his glittering resume was missing two glaring items: an oval win and a win in the series' biggest race.
After taking the lead on lap 187, Palou led the rest of the way to knock out both of those items in one fell swoop. In the process, he also became the first Spaniard to win the Indianapolis 500.
After winning eight races and his fourth title in five seasons, Palou has recorded three wins in the first six races this season and holds a 27-point lead over Kyle Kirkwood atop the IndyCar Series standings.
He isn't on the same hot streak that he was at this time last year, but he remains the man to beat for the series title. A second straight Indy 500 win would put some valuable distance between Palou and the potential cast of challengers, and after claiming pole, he is a firm favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.
2026 Indianapolis 500 Information
- Race: 2026 Indianapolis 500 (Race 7 of 18 of the 2026 IndyCar Series season)
- Track (Location): Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Indianapolis, Indiana)
- Race Length: 200 laps (500 miles)
- Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
- Time: 12:24 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
Odds to Win the 2026 Indianapolis 500
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
| Álex Palou | +275 | 26.67% | 18.96% |
| Pato O'Ward | +750 | 11.76% | 8.37% |
| David Malukas | +900 | 10.00% | 7.11% |
| Josef Newgarden | +900 | 10.00% | 7.11% |
| Alexander Rossi | +1000 | 9.09% | 6.47% |
| Conor Daly | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.47% |
| Scott McLaughlin | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.47% |
| Felix Rosenqvist | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.74% |
| Santino Ferrucci | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.74% |
| Scott Dixon | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.38% |
| Kyle Kirkwood | +2500 | 3.85% | 2.73% |
| Christian Rasmussen | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.09% |
| Takuma Sato | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.09% |
| Hélio Castroneves | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Will Power | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Christian Lundgaard | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.74% |
| Kyffin Simpson | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.74% |
| Marcus Ericsson | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.74% |
| Caio Collet | +4500 | 2.17% | 1.54% |
| Ed Carpenter | +4500 | 2.17% | 1.54% |
| Rinus VeeKay | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.39% |
| Marcus Armstrong | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.06% |
| Ryan Hunter-Reay | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.06% |
| Graham Rahal | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% |
| Louis Foster | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% |
| Romain Grosjean | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% |
| Mick Schumacher | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.70% |
| Nolan Siegel | +12500 | 0.79% | 0.56% |
| Dennis Hauger | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.47% |
| Jack Harvey | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.47% |
| Jacob Abel | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.24% |
| Katherine Legge | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% |
| Sting Ray Robb | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% |
2026 Indianapolis 500 Starting Grid
Drivers in bold are former Indy 500 winners. Drivers in italics are Indy 500 rookies.
| Row | Inside | Middle | Outside |
| 1 | #10 Álex Palou | #20 Alexander Rossi | #12 David Malukas |
| 2 | #60 Felix Rosenqvist | #14 Santino Ferrucci | #5 Pato O'Ward |
| 3 | #8 Kyffin Simpson | #23 Conor Daly | #3 Scott McLaughlin |
| 4 | #9 Scott Dixon | #76 Rinus VeeKay | #75 Takuma Sato |
| 5 | #33 Ed Carpenter | #06 Hélio Castroneves | #21 Christian Rasmussen |
| 6 | #66 Marcus Armstrong | #28 Marcus Ericsson | #7 Christian Lundgaard |
| 7 | #26 Will Power | #6 Nolan Siegel | #45 Louis Foster |
| 8 | #31 Ryan Hunter-Reay | #2 Josef Newgarden | #18 Romain Grosjean |
| 9 | #27 Kyle Kirkwood | #11 Katherine Legge | #47 Mick Schumacher |
| 10 | #15 Graham Rahal | #19 Dennis Hauger | #51 Jacob Abel |
| 11 | #77 Sting Ray Robb | #4 Caio Collet | #24 Jack Harvey |
Indy 500 Predictions and Picks
Pato O'Ward to Finish in the Top Five (+100 at BetOnline)
O'Ward has four top-five finishes in his last five Indianapolis 500 starts, and were it not for a late-race crash while racing for the lead in 2023, that record might be five in five.
- 2025: 3rd
- 2024: 2nd
- 2023: 24th
- 2022: 2nd
- 2021: 4th
- 2020: 6th
Could this be the year an Indy 500 win finally stops eluding Pato? Due to a practice crash last Monday, he will be in a backup car for the race. Don't let that put you off of still backing him to do well, however.
A lot will have to go right for him to contend and to win, but a victory is well within his reach, even in a backup car. And even if it doesn't, his record of strong results makes this the best value play on the board if you are going for a finishing position pick.
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