Cubs vs. Phillies: Is It Kyle Schwarber Day? | June 11, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Jun 11, 2025, 3:04 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Cubs vs. Phillies: Kyle Schwarber let us down last night, but the matchup today is just as good—if not better. He draws another fastball-heavy right-hander with exploitable splits. We are running it back with the big fella.
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Last Month: 84-144 (+8.07u)
Last Week: 12-41 (-11.81u)
Cubs vs. Phillies Best Bet – June 11
Will we get our money back after an 0-5 outing last night from Kyle Schwarber?
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Yes, we are running it back with Kyle Schwarber.
What felt like the perfect spot last night turned into an 0-for-5 showing from the big fella. But today, he draws another strong matchup against a right-hander who leans heavily on his fastball.
Enter Cubs starter Ben Brown, who owns a 5.37 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Left-handed bats are hitting .292 with a .794 OPS against him, and he is giving up 5.46 hits per outing.
Brown throws the heater 58% of the time. I love backing hitters who mash fastballs and fading arms who over-rely on them. Schwarber has a +11 run value against fastballs this season, per Baseball Savant. He pairs that with a .301 xBA, .732 xSLG, and a .488 xwOBA. He is the best fastball hitter on this Phillies roster—by far.
Brown's best pitch is his knuckle curve, but it grades below league average. Schwarber has crushed that pitch throughout his career, too.
Schwarber enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, just like yesterday. He has not gone back-to-back elite-rated games without a hit all season. In 148 elite-rated games, he records a hit 60% of the time.
Do not be scared to pay the juice. I did. I laddered his bases and sprinkled the home run. Schwarber goes yard in 25% of his elite-rated games.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Hit (-160) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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