Kikuchi Back on the Bump for the Angels — Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Sep 05, 2026, 12:15 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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This is always one of the toughest stretches of the MLB gambling season and it's because the ball just isn't flying like it was all summer. The temperatures are getting cooler, the ball isn't flying as high and I'm still convinced the balls may have been changed.
That being said, we've only got a few weeks of the regular season left and I've never been a quick to give up. I'm locked in on two hitters tonight, let me tell you about them both.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 19-38; +20.2 units
Today's Dingers
Teoscar Hernández Home Run (+480) | Lucky Rebel
Let me start by apologizing, but I have to go back. Teoscar Hernández has been on absolute fire and the guy is so due to hit a home run.
In his last 10 games, Teoscar's hitting .342 with an xSLG of .524 and an xwOBA of .402. He's got a 15% BRL over that time frame and a 56% HH.
He's hitting .257 on the year, he's only hit 12 home runs and his SLG sits barely above .400; but like I said, his recent form is what peaked my interest.
Over his last 5 games, Hernández is hitting .474 with a .788 xSLG, 19% flyball rate, and 25% BRL.
Cade Cavalli will get the start for the Washington Nationals tonight and 70% of his pitch mix lines up perfectly with Hernández. Winds blowing out toward center field, back in Los Angeles; this has to be Teoscar's night.
Bryan Reynolds Home Run (+560) | Lucky Rebel
Bryan Reynolds hasn't hit a home run since July, but the guy has been smashing the baseball as of late. On the year, Reynolds is hitting .261 with a .443 SLG, 9% BRL and 48% HH.
Over his last 10 games, Reynolds is hitting .286 with a .357 SLG but a .609 xSLG. He's so due for a couple big hits it's not even funny. Reynolds has a 40% flyball rate over his last 10 games and over his last 5 the numbers get even crazier.
He's hitting .318 in his last 5, he's got a xSLG of .784 and 42% flyball rate. He's been incredible, the ball just isn't flying his way.
Yusei Kikuchi is back for the Los Angeles Angels and his first two starts back have been less than desirable. Kikuchi's pitched 12 innings since returning, he's given up 13 hits, 4 home runs and 7 earned runs.
Kikuchi's pitch mix is dominated by a 4-seam fastball/slider combo and both are pitches we've seen Reynolds crush this year. He's hitting .274 against these two pitches with a 13% BRL, 55% HH and .426 xwOBA.
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