MLB Plays and Predictions for Wednesday, April 29: Hunting with Houston
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Wed Apr 29, 2026, 2:31 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Wednesday, everybody! Hope your day is off to a great start and you're ready to dive into some baseball bets tonight.
I've got a pair of plus-money looks on this evening's slate, so let's get into my MLB plays and predictions for Wednesday, April 29.
MLB Plays and Predictions for Wednesday, April 29
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles took the first of this three-game series on Tuesday night, defeating the Astros 5-3.
I'm not too convinced their fortunes carry over into tonight's contest.
Right-hander Peter Lambert is set to start for the visitors, and he's shown some promising metrics in his brief 2026 stint.
After two starts and 11 innings of work, the 29-year-old owns a 3.27 ERA, along with a 2.94 expected ERA and a 1.85 FIP. He hasn't allowed a home run and is generating an impressive 52% ground-ball rate. Of course, it's still a small sample size, but I'm encouraged by the approach.
What I'm even more optimistic about is Houston's lineup getting a crack at Chris Bassitt.
The 37-year-old righty has made five starts and carries a 6.75 ERA, 6.24 xERA and 6.27 FIP. His BABIP is well over .300, he's walking more hitters than he's striking out, and he owns a 2.06 WHIP.
Play: Astros Moneyline (+109)
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds
The Reds took care of business in the first game of this series against the Rockies, winning 7-2. Can we expect similar results on Wednesday night?
For that to happen, they'll need Brandon Williamson to finally pull his weight. The 28-year-old lefty has some concerning numbers, posting a 5.40 ERA, 6.96 expected ERA and 6.29 FIP.
The good news is he'll be facing a Colorado Rockies offense that has struggled immensely against southpaws this season.
Since the beginning of April, they rank dead last in wRC+ (56), with a .613 OPS (26th) and a .107 ISO (24th).
Over the past two weeks, those numbers have only gotten worse, with a 41 wRC+, .561 OPS and a .115 ISO.
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds bats have picked up against right-handers over the past two weeks, ranking near the top of the league with a .223 ISO, along with a .782 OPS (9th) and a 111 wRC+ (13th).
I'd be surprised if that production doesn't hold, or even improve, against Tomoyuki Sugano tonight.
The 36-year-old owns a 3.42 ERA through five starts, but also carries a concerning 6.05 expected ERA and 4.83 FIP. He's allowing a 15% HR/FB rate, along with a 46% hard-hit rate and a 15.5% barrel rate.
I initially looked toward the over, but given the concerns with Colorado's lineup and its inability to hit lefties, I'd rather trust Cincinnati to do enough damage to win and hopefully cover a plus-money run line.
Play: Reds Run Line -1.5 (+140)
MLB Plays:
MLB Record: 36-31-1 (+3.13 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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