MLB Plays & Props for Sunday, May 3

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Sun May 03, 2026, 1:52 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Luis Castillo pitches very well at home

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Cleveland Guardians

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Athletics

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What's going on everybody? There's tons to like on Sunday's board of baseball action, and I'm going to switch things up a bit. Not only, do I have an outright play, but also a few strikeout props to guide us through the slate.

So let's dive into my MLB plays and props for Sunday, May 3.

MLB Plays & Props for Sunday, May 3

Guardians vs Athletics

The Cleveland Guardians are on the verge of sweeping the Athletics in this three-game series, and they have just the right man on the bump to get them there.

Twenty-five-year-old southpaw Parker Messick has been tremendous through six starts. His ERA sits at 1.73, along with a 2.32 FIP, a remarkably impressive 53% ground ball rate and a HR/FB rate under 4%.

The A's have been middling against lefties over the past couple of weeks, and I don't expect much to change with a stud like Messick on the mound.

On the other side, right-handed veteran Aaron Civale gets the nod for the home club. His 3.23 ERA is outshined by a worrisome 4.57 expected ERA and 4.51 xFIP. His inability to generate ground balls (31.6%) is a cause for concern, along with an alarming 52.5% hard-hit rate.

The Guardians' bats haven't been destroying righties, per se, but if there were a matchup where they could inflict some damage, it would be this one.

Play: Guardians Moneyline (-125)

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Clay Holmes over 4.5 Strikeouts (-131)

Now we move into the player prop portion of this article, and we begin with right-hander Clay Holmes, who is in a quality position to eclipse 4.5 strikeouts this afternoon.

The reason is that the Los Angeles Angels have the league's worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 26%. Those struggles persist even when narrowing the sample size to a more recent stretch.

Holmes has been solid so far this season, posting a 1.75 ERA and a 3.87 xFIP. He hasn't been racking up a ton of strikeouts, with just 6.3 per nine innings, but the potential is there, especially against a vulnerable Angels lineup.

Luis Castillo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction & Best Bet (June 2): Expect Pitching Duel at Globe Life Field cover

Another pitcher with potential for dominance today is Seattle Mariners starter Luis Castillo.

The 33-year-old right-hander has gone over 4.5 strikeouts only twice this season, but he's in a solid spot to do it for the third time.

Since the start of April, the Kansas City Royals rank 22nd in strikeout rate against righties (22.6%). Castillo still has the juice we've seen in the past and is capable of putting together a strong start, despite what his 6.35 ERA suggests. His 4.45 xFIP isn't great, but it's trending in the right direction, and he's averaging 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a swinging-strike rate north of 10%.

Look for Castillo to return to decent form tonight against the Royals.

Jack Leiter Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Jack Leiter

We've got to include at least one under in our MLB betting card today, and that will revolve around Jack Leiter.

I'm banking on the right-hander staying below 5.5 strikeouts in tonight's game against the Tigers.

Detroit has been extremely disciplined at the plate, ranking fifth in strikeout rate over the past couple of weeks (18.8%) and since the beginning of April (19.6%).

Meanwhile, Leiter isn't exactly in a groove at the moment. He's sporting a 5.17 ERA, 5.40 xERA, a .329 BABIP and an 18% HR/FB rate.

To his credit, he's averaging over nine strikeouts per nine innings, but he hasn't gone over 5.5 since his first two starts, when he recorded eight and nine, respectively. Since then, he's stayed under in four straight, and I'm looking for that to make it five tonight.

MLB Plays:

MLB Record: 40-32-1 (+5.18 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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