Orioles vs. Red Sox: Total Base Props | August 18, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Aug 18, 2025, 3:59 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Orioles vs. Red Sox: Heading into Boston, the Orioles look to make noise against the Red Sox. Gunnar Henderson stands out as a player poised for a breakout. After a rough start to the season, he has heated up in the second half. His recent cold streak suggests he is due for an impactful performance at the plate. Tonight presents a prime opportunity for Henderson to deliver on both hits and extra bases.
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Last Month: 77-102 (+15.98u)
Last Week: 18-26 (+1.95u)
Orioles vs. Red Sox Best Bets – August 18
Can Gunnar Henderson continue his dominance at Fenway?
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Heading to Boston, where the Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles, I have my eye on a player who feels more than due for an explosive outing at the plate. That being Orioles star shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who has struggled at times this season but has turned it around in the second half.
He feels due for several reasons. First, he has not recorded a hit since Friday. Second, he has not recorded an extra-base hit since Thursday. Third, he has not left the yard since August ninth. Yes, I sprinkled the nuke. However, the real play lies in his bases, priced at even money to the over 1.5.
Henderson owns the fifth-highest rating on Batters-Box today. When rated elite, he records two or more hits 31% of the time and exceeds this prop 51% of the time, based on a 196-game sample. This season alone, in 23 elite-rated games, he records two hits 30% of the time, over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI 65% of the time, and over 1.5 bases 40% of the time. Not the flashiest trend for the bases, but a larger sample size carries more weight for me.
Henderson vs. May
Today, Henderson faces newly acquired Red Sox pitcher Dustin May. The former Dodger has struggled against left-handers recently. In his last 90 matchups with lefties, they own a .377 xBA, .656 xSLG, and .370 xwOBA. May is allowing nearly 52% hard contact to left-handers during that span, including a 2.50 HR/9.
Just under 45% of May's pitch mix is rated below league average, per FanGraphs. His fastball, his best pitch, is used only 17% of the time. His main pitch is the slider, which he throws 40% of the time. Henderson has batted .276 or better with an OPS of .847+ and a wRC+ of 143+ against both fastballs and sliders. He is also feasting on the 43% of May's arsenal that is below league average.
Despite Henderson's road struggles this season, against right-handed pitchers away from home, he has a .260 BA, .753 OPS, and 110 wRC+. This feels like the perfect spot for him to break out after a cold weekend at the plate.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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