Pirates vs Mets: Odds & Predictions | May 14, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed May 14, 2025, 1:07 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
mlb
Pirates vs Mets: Francisco Lindor is not the only Mets bat in a strong spot today. Pete Alonso has a favorable matchup against a struggling lefty and offers great value on a hit prop. With the metrics and matchup aligning, this is a spot worth highlighting.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today's slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always FREE.
Last Month: 100-160-2 (+3.76u)
Last Week: 20-38 (+2.05u)
Pirates vs Mets Odds
Can Mets stud Pete Alonso put on another iconic performance tonight?
Check out BetOnline's New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!
Runline
Pirates: +1.5 (+114)
Mets: -1.5 (-134)
Total
Over: 8 (-108)
Under: 8 (-112)
Moneyline
Pirates: +256
Mets: -283
Pirates vs Mets Best Bet
Despite what I said about Francisco Lindor in my Best Bets piece, I also like Pete Alonso in this matchup. At $1.52 for a hit, this is a spot I need to be all over.
Coming off a hitless Tuesday, the first baseman is in a strong bounce-back position against Pirates starter Bailey Falter, who holds the second-worst rating on Batters-Box.com. The left-hander carries poor marks in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. On the road this season, he has struggled with a 6.05 ERA and a .307 opponent batting average. Overall, he owns a 4.36 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, allowing just over 35% hard contact.
Today, Alonso carries a great rating on Batters-Box.com. When rated great at home, he records a hit 60% of the time, hits a home run 20% of the time, and goes over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in 51% of games. That is based on a 35-game great rating home sample. Against left-handed pitching this season, he is batting a sharp .313 with a 1.030 OPS and a .436 OBP. For his career, he holds a .236 average, .345 OBP, .864 OPS, and a 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
According to Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, Alonso matches up extremely well against Falter's pitch mix. With how well Alonso has been seeing the ball and how much Falter has struggled, it is tough to pass up a -152 hit prop.
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Hit (-152) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
- Picks & Odds for the NFL
- NFL Betting Guide for Beginners
- Pick & Odds for NCAAF
- NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the MLB
- MLB Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NBA
- NBA Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NHL
- NHL Betting Guide for Beginners
More Betting Stories
Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
More MLB News
MLB Betting News
Highs and Lows: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Justin Carlucci
MLB Betting News
Offense in Arlington: Expert Picks in the MLB (9/16)
PJ Glasser
MLB Betting News
Road Favorites: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Justin Carlucci
MLB Betting News
Sunday Best Bets in the MLB
TonesTakes