Runs in Washington? Expert Picks in the MLB Today

Justin Carlucci

Written by: Justin Carlucci

Published: Thu Aug 27, 2026, 8:00 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

Rafael Devers after a win - player prop picks

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Welcome to my MLB expert picks today! We have a tiny Thursday MLB slate on tap, but a couple of spots are sticking out to me. One total in D.C. and one late-night moneyline out west. Let's dive into my best MLB bets for August 27th and find a couple of winners.

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MLB Expert Picks Today: Thursday, August 27

We'll start in D.C., where the Rockies visit the Nationals for a 1:05 PM ET matchup at Nationals Park. Gabriel Hughes gets the ball for Colorado, with Jake Irvin on the other side for Washington. Both starters have ERAs well north of 5.00, and both bullpens have spent plenty of time handing out runs this season.

Rockies vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup

  • Colorado Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (0-5, 6.54 ERA, 35 SO)
  • Washington Nationals: RHP Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.82 ERA, 76 SO)

Best Bet: Rockies/Nationals Over 9 Runs (-120) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook

I'm attacking the over here. Irvin owns a 5.82 ERA, and while the surface-level splits against lefties do not look terrible, there is plenty to get after. He has allowed a .186 ISO to left-handed hitters, but his expected ISO sits all the way up at .234. In other words, he has gotten a little lucky against left-handed power.

Irvin gave up a massive 38 homers last season, so he has a track record of getting shelled. Colorado has an unproven arm on the other side with Hughes, who carries a 6.54 ERA into Thursday.

Then comes the real kicker: both bullpens rank bottom five in the league in ERA. The Washington bullpen has allowed an absurd number of home runs, which is awesome for a late-game surge. Add in temperatures expected to reach the high 80s in D.C., and this has all the ingredients for runs.

The game total is only 9 runs. A couple early crooked innings, a few bullpen mistakes, and this can get home pretty comfortably. Give me the over.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Expert Picks

Landen Roupp has a sub 3.50 ERA, but has struggled in his last few outings for San Francisco - MLB Picks

Next, we head to Oracle Park, where the Giants host the Diamondbacks for a 9:45 PM ET matchup. Jose Cabrera is set to take the ball for Arizona while Landen Roupp starts for San Francisco.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants Pitching Matchup

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Jose Cabrera (0-2, 5.60 ERA, 12 SO)
  • San Francisco Giants: RHP Landen Roupp (7-13, 4.34 ERA, 130 SO)

Best Bet: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-102) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook

I'm a fan of Roupp. His 4.34 ERA is a little ugly, but the expected ERA is much friendlier at 3.75, which tells us he has been a bit unlucky. He rarely gives up hard hits or barrels, and those are the building blocks I want from a pitcher I'm backing at close to even money.

The Giants have also been putting up runs lately behind Rafael Devers and company. In the month of August, San Francisco ranks 10th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is a nice spot for that offense against Cabrera.

Cabrera comes in with a 5.60 ERA and very limited MLB experience. It is not hard to see a path for the Giants to put pressure on him early, let Roupp work through the Diamondbacks lineup, and hand things off with a lead.

Good luck on Thursday. Let's cash a couple of winners!

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Justin Carlucci
Justin Carlucci

Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!

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