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Three Must Bet MLB Props: Parlays, Totals & More | April 19, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Happy Friday, everyone; the MLB is spoiling us with a fat, juicy slate with a bunch of opportunities to take advantage of. Here are my three favorite plays of the day.
Let’s get this weekend started. Let’s have some fun!
Top Props for Friday’s MLB Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Three weeks into the MLB regular season, I am currently down BAD -13.27 units. The season is so young the numbers are not there yet. I need the middle of May already.
Please, remember to gamble responsibly, there is not need to be insane like Shohei’s translator.
Silly Goose Parlay: Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout All to Record a Hit (+177) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
Angels star Mike Trout steps up to the plate
The Stank:
It’s Friday; let’s get the weekend started with a three-leg hit parlay. We need the league’s hottest hitter to come through for us, and the Saturday vibes will flow through our bloodstream a day early.
Gunnar Henderson has been on Mars, recording nine hits in his last five games. Today, he goes up against Royals starter Alec Marsh, who has zero remarkable pitches. Henderson crushes all five of Marsh’s pitches, especially sinkers, curveballs, and changeups, which make up 45% of Marsh’s pitches. Henderson is batting above .308 against all three of those pitches.
Arguably the scariest hitter in the game as of late, Mookie Betts is a literal flame in the first three weeks of the season, batting .369, with an OPS of 1.137. After going 0 for 4 on Wednesday against the Nationals, I fully expect him to bounce back against Mets starter Sean Manaea. Betts destroys all five of Manaea’s pitches. He has had a lot of success off of this; in 29 at-bats, he has ten hits, two doubles, and three home runs. Betts destroys all five of Manaea’s pitches. With under -300 odds to record a hit in a possible bounce-back game, I believe it is excellent value and a great day to back Betts to get a hit.
People told me Mike Trout was washed 🫵🏼😂 pic.twitter.com/PE5u7S8jyE
— swilly ☻ (@swillysports) April 17, 2024
The final leg of our Silly Goose Parlay is the only Mike Trout, who also went hitless in his last game while being a member of the white-hot hitter club. Three weeks in, Trout looks like his old self, batting .270 and a league-leading eight home runs. Trout has an elite matchup rating today, according to Batters-Box.com. He has recorded a hit in seven of his last ten elite matchup ratings. For the sickos out there that love home run props when having an elite rating Trout goes yard 30% of the time. It’s worth the sprinkle if you are feeling freaky.
Top Prop: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-150) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
You already read about why I love Betts to record a hit. Now it is time to tell you why I love him to go over his hits, runs and RBI prop. Betts has the 7th-best matchup rating today on Batters-Box.com. The trends on him are mouth-watering. When elite, Betts goes over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI prop 61% of the time.
Mookie Betts going 5 for 5 tonight. the 3rd time in his career apparently. I've seen enough, MVP this man already 😮💨
©️SportsNetLA pic.twitter.com/h9ZuW7eS7d— James¹⁷¹⁸🎌 (@ShotimeLAD) April 17, 2024
I typically do not get excited over hitters’ history against pitchers because so many guys have such small sample sizes. However, his success against Sean Manaea is astounding. In 29 at-bats, he is batting almost .350 with seven extra-base hits and eight RBIs. That is a legit sample size you can feel good about.
Total: Rangers vs Braves F5 Over 5.0 (-115) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Heading down south, where the Braves host the Rangers, Chris Sale and Andrew Heaney are on the bump for their respective teams. They both give up a ton of hard contact and have struggled in their first few starts this season.
Chris Sale has allowed an average of 5+ hits and 3+ runs in his first three outings this season. On Saturday against the Marlins, Sale went 7.0 Innings, allowing six hits and five earned runs. On the other side, with similar numbers, Andrew Heaney has allowed four hits in every start this season, along with an average of three earned runs per game.
According to Batters-Box.com there are five Braves hitters with elite rating with some scattered good and above average hitters. The Rangers are mostly constructed with above average matchup ratings today. Only a few Rangers have poor ratings, but I think both team’s should still show up and score some runs early against each team’s starters.
Where to find more advanced analytics.
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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