World Baseball Classic Championship Odds, Preview and MVP Picks: United States vs Venezuela

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Tue Mar 17, 2026, 12:19 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Get the latest World Baseball Classic championship odds and preview for USA vs Venezuela, plus a breakdown of MVP picks.

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We've made it to the World Baseball Classic championship, where the United States and Venezuela meet Tuesday night at 8:00 PM ET.

Team USA entered the tournament as the favorite at -115, while Venezuela sat a bit further down the board at +965. Now, both teams have played their way into the final and are one win away from proving they're the best in the world.

Let's break down the odds, preview the matchup and make a World Baseball Classic MVP pick for USA vs Venezuela.

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USA vs Venezuela Odds 

Courtesy of Lucky Rebel

Moneyline: USA (-290) | Venezuela (+220)

Runline: USA -2 (-105) | Venezuela +2 (-115)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

USA vs Venezuela Preview

After a thrilling 4-2 come-from-behind victory against Italy on Monday night, Venezuela now faces a quick turnaround for its championship meeting with the tournament favorite.

The United States had the luxury of a day off following its own narrow 2-1 win over the Dominican Republic. Controversial strike calls aside, the Americans capitalized on their opportunities and earned their spot in the title game.

Now, they'll square off against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. If you bet baseball regularly, you know he tends to show up for the wrong reasons.

Rodriguez hasn't been a pitcher you typically want to back. In 2024, he posted a 5.04 ERA with a 4.57 FIP, and those numbers barely changed last season (5.02 ERA, 4.57 FIP). He's allowed plenty of quality contact as well, with a HR/FB rate north of 12% in each of the last two years and a BABIP above .320.

We saw that volatility in pool play against the Dominican Republic. Rodriguez lasted just 2.2 innings, allowed three runs on three hits and gave up two home runs, though he did strike out five. That's pretty much who he is at this stage.

There's also the familiarity factor working against him, as several U.S. hitters have seen him plenty, and Venezuela taxed its bullpen on Monday night.

On the other side, the United States turns to Nolan McLean, the 24-year-old right-hander coming off an impressive rookie campaign with the Mets. In a small sample of eight starts (48 innings), he posted a 2.06 ERA, 2.97 FIP and 2.78 xFIP.

His lone outing this tournament came in the U.S. loss to Italy, where he went three innings, allowed three runs on three hits and two home runs while striking out four – a line that mirrors Rodriguez's volatility in its own way.

The difference, though, is what comes after. The United States has the deeper, more rested bullpen, and that's where the clear edge lies. Offensively, both lineups are loaded, it's just a matter of who delivers in the biggest moment.

Which brings up an interesting discussion and betting angle – who should we be targeting for World Baseball Classic MVP?

USA vs Venezuela Updated MVP Odds 

Courtesy of Lucky Rebel

Aaron Judge (USA) +350
Bobby Witt Jr. (USA) +700
Roman Anthony (USA) +750
Ronald Acuna Jr. (VEN) +800
Kyle Schwarber (USA) +950
Gunnar Henderson (USA) +1000
Luis Arraez (VEN) +2000
Maikel Garcia (VEN) +2000
Pete Crow-Armstrong (USA) +2000
Bryce Harper (USA) +2500

I view this as a two-man race on each side.

For the United States, it comes down to Aaron Judge (+350) and Roman Anthony (+700).

As for Venezuela, Luis Arraez (+2000) and Maikel Garcia (+2000) stand out.

Yes, a case can be made for Ronald Acuna Jr. His name carries more weight, he's played well and could absolutely deliver in this spot. But the production hasn't quite matched the others.

Acuna leads in runs with 10, but he has just four RBIs compared to Arraez's 10 and Garcia's six. Garcia is slashing .435/.458/.652, while Arraez sits at .348/.385/.783. Acuna, meanwhile, is at .261/.414/.565.

In the other dugout, Judge is slashing .261/.393/.522 with six hits, two home runs and five RBIs.

His teammate Roman Anthony has been even better at the plate and was getting plenty of love during the postgame show following the semifinal. Anthony is slashing .318/.423/.591 with seven hits, two home runs and seven RBIs.

If I had to narrow it down to one from each side, I'd target Roman Anthony (+750) and Luis Arraez (+2000).

Get the latest World Baseball Classic championship odds and preview for USA vs Venezuela, plus a breakdown of MVP picks.

USA vs Venezuela Prediction

We've done quite well with our game predictions this tournament, with Venezuela coming through on the runline last night and Italy cashing our moneyline ticket this past Saturday. As for the championship game, this one's a bit tougher to read.

I do believe the United States is the rightful favorite, but the price is steep. Venezuela has plenty of weapons and could absolutely keep this game close against a young, unproven arm in McLean. That said, the U.S. should be able to limit any damage with its strong and rested bullpen.

I have plenty of confidence in the United States, especially against Rodriguez and a Venezuelan bullpen that could be taxed from last night.

I don't have any official plays on the side or total, but I'd lean toward the over 8.5 (-115). If I had to pick a side, the value looks to be on Venezuela +2 on the runline, even though I ultimately think the United States gets the job done.

I will be sprinkling a little pizza money on those MVP selections, though, just to give us a fun sweat on both sides.

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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