NBA Picks Today (Oct. 28): Prop Bets We’re Riding

There are a dozen games to work with on the hardwood on Wednesday. Fortunately, that's given us plenty of betting opportunities for tonight's slate. 

Below, I'm breaking down my top NBA prop bets for Wednesday, October 28. 

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

Prop Bets for October 28

• Cade Cunningham Under 39.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-128)
• Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-110)
• Tyler Herro Under 4.5 Assists (-115)
• Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 Rebounds (-130)
• Tyrese Haliburton Under 9.5 Assists (-130)
• Wendell Carter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (-117)

Cade Cunningham Under 39.5 PRA (-128) | Lucky Rebel

Kicking things off in the Motor City, the 3-1 Detroit Pistons host the 3-1 Charlotte Hornets at 7 p.m. ET.

Although I expect the Pistons to take care of business, I'm anticipating a somewhat underwhelming performance from their star player relative to his prop lines.

That leads me to betting Cade Cunningham under 39.5 points, rebounds and assists.

Through four games, Cunningham is averaging 21 points, eight rebounds and six assists, giving him a combined average of 35 PRA.

I'm not confident this is a spot where he'll exceed that average.

The Hornets rank eighth in opponent 3-point field goal percentage allowed (36.3%), which is notable considering 34% of Cunningham's shot attempts are coming from beyond the arc, the highest rate of his career. He's connecting on just 33% of those looks.

A majority of Cade's attempts come from midrange, accounting for 43% of his shots. However, the Hornets rank 12th in opponent field goal percentage from that area (40.4%).

Additionally, Charlotte ranks fourth in overall rebound percentage (40.4%), seventh in opponent rebounds per game (51) and tied for 12th in assists allowed per game (25.5).

I just don't view this as favorable a spot as the books do and will be looking to fade that bullish sentiment tonight. 

Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-110) | Lucky Rebel

Let's shift to Milwaukee, where the Bucks play host to the Houston Rockets.

The first of the pair of unders I'll be sweating involves fading Fred VanVleet's 3-point production.

I don't see VanVleet connecting on more than two tonight. The Bucks rank fourth in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (29.8%), and even though VanVleet is launching 65% of his attempts from deep, he's connecting on just 29% of them.

The efficiency isn't there and neither is a favorable matchup.

Tyler Herro Under 4.5 Assists (-115) | Lucky Rebel

The other fade of human achievement involves Bucks guard Tyler Herro, who I'll be banking on to stay below 4.5 assists.

The Rockets are allowing the ninth-fewest assists per game (25.5), while the Bucks rank 22nd in assist percentage this season (61.2%).

Milwaukee plays a fair amount of isolation basketball, and I expect Herro to follow suit, looking to contribute more as a scorer than a facilitator.

He's averaging 18.3 shots per game while shooting an efficient 46.6% from the floor, so why stop that momentum?

Houston ranks 27th in opponent 3-point shot frequency (41.7%) and 22nd in midrange shot frequency (31%). With a majority of Herro's attempts coming from those areas, he should have plenty of opportunities to create his own looks rather than dish the ball off.

And even when he does look to distribute, it's worth noting that Houston ranks first in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (28.6%) and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed. So even if Herro creates opportunities for his teammates, I'm not convinced they'll be able to capitalize.

Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 Rebounds (-130) | Lucky Rebel

Next, we head on down to Indiana, where the Pacers and Sixers square off, with both teams playing their fifth game of the young season.

Believe it or not, I'll actually be wagering on an over tonight, and this one involves Tyrese Maxey's rebounding abilities.

I'm expecting the 25-year-old guard to collect at least four boards tonight, which he's done in three of four games so far, averaging exactly four rebounds per contest.

The Pacers have been launching plenty of shots from beyond the arc, ranking ninth in 3-point attempts but just 21st in 3-point percentage (31.5%). Philadelphia also ranks 13th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (33.3%), giving us even more reason to expect plenty of long misses bouncing toward the perimeter, where a guard like Maxey can snag them. 

Tyrese Haliburton Under 9.5 Assists (-130) | Lucky Rebel

On the flip side, I'll be dabbling in the under market yet again, but this time with Tyrese Haliburton's assists.

Even though he's averaging 9.5 dimes through four games, this isn't a spot where we should expect him to reach double digits.

The 76ers rank second in opponent assists per possession (0.194), fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed.

This should be a tough offensive outing for Indiana, which could stifle Haliburton's facilitating success.

Haliburton has also been more aggressive as a shooter so far, taking 15.5 shots per game and knocking down eight of those attempts (51.5%). Perhaps he looks to focus his attention on maintaining that scoring efficiency a little more than usual tonight, especially in a matchup where the Pacers will need it.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (-117) | Lucky Rebel 

How about this, I'll be ending my prop card with an over.

Let's take a stab at Wendell Carter Jr. going over 7.5 rebounds against the Toronto Raptors this evening.

Carter is averaging 8.7 boards per game and has gone over this number in two of three contests. He snagged 10 most recently against the Knicks, nine against the Timberwolves and seven in his season opener against the Hawks.

The good news for Carter, and hopefully this wager, is that the Raptors are allowing the most rebounds per game in the NBA (63.3).

That's already a strong sign, but it gets better. Toronto's offense ranks 29th in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in points per 100 possessions, and will be facing an Orlando squad that sits eighth in defensive effective field goal percentage.

There should be plenty of missed shots from Canada's team and plenty of opportunities for Carter to scoop them up.

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