NBA Playoff Prop Bets for Thursday, April 30: Taking Tyrese
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Thu Apr 30, 2026, 11:39 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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NBA Playoff Prop Bets for Thursday, April 30
Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
Let's skip over the first game of the night and move along to the City of Brotherly Love, where the Philadelphia 76ers host the Boston Celtics in Game 6.
Philadelphia got a massive boost from their big man, and former MVP, Joel Embiid, in Game 5. He logged 39 minutes, scored 33 points on 52% shooting, and added eight assists and four boards, helping guide his squad to a 113-97 road victory.
Clearly his teammate, Tyrese Maxey, is elated to have his center back in the mix, as it takes a little pressure off his shoulders in the scoring department. Still, even with Embiid's return, Maxey dropped 22 in Game 5 and 25 in Game 6. In Maxey's past 15 games with Embiid on the floor, his scoring average hovers around 25 points. Without Embiid alongside him in that same span, he's pouring in about 27 points per contest.
That's not too surprising. It makes sense that Maxey would take more shots without another primary scorer alongside him. What stood out, though, was his rebounding averages with and without Embiid on the court. With Embiid present, Maxey is actually averaging five rebounds per game, as opposed to without him, where that number drops to three per contest.
Maxey is still going to find a way to score, especially back at home in an elimination game. I have no concern there, and expect him to land around that 25 to 27-point mark. Heck, even if he clears this combo prop with scoring alone, that wouldn't shock anyone.
It's an added bonus that rebounds are included, especially with Embiid back on the floor, which has boosted Maxey's production on the glass, as seen when he grabbed 10 boards last game.
Mike Conley Over 3.5 Assists (-125)
How about betting an over on the 38-year-old point guard, Mike Conley?
Unexpectedly, due to injuries, Conley's role in this first-round series has increased. In the first few games, he logged 11, four, and one minute, respectively. In Game 4, he played 21 minutes, and then logged 17 in a blowout in Game 5.
Assuming this game stays more competitive, we should project Conley for 20-plus minutes tonight. Naturally, with more playing time comes more facilitating opportunities, and that's where we can take advantage.
Over his last two games, when he's been needed more, he's recorded four assists in each. His potential assists average sits at five, and despite that, we can still get him at over 3.5 with just -125 juice.
Let's trust the lefty vet to come through in the assists department tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-113)
Our final prop bet for Thursday night keeps us in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, as we'll trust Tim Hardaway Jr. to score at least 10 points in Game 6.
He's averaged 10.4 points per game in this series, scoring seven, 16, 11, 10, and eight, respectively, though it's worth noting he logged just 12 minutes in his most recent outing.
During the regular season, he was a bit more productive, putting up 13.5 points per contest.
What the Denver Nuggets have been lacking this postseason, and in recent years, is scoring depth to support Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. For them to win, they need offensive production from their role players, and Hardaway is one of the guys who will be called upon.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a respectable defense, but without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo, that puts more strain on the rest of the roster to step up on both ends, which can wear them down over the course of a game.
If this prop were at 10.5, I'd likely stay away, but at 9.5 points and -113 odds, this is well worth a wager.
NBA Prop Bets:
- Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 Points and Rebounds (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
- Mike Conley Over 3.5 Assists (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-113 at Lucky Rebel)
NBA Record: 201-165-1 (+16.3 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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