NC State vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Picks – NCAAF Week 4: Wolfpack Run Wild

The Virginia Cavaliers aim for their first win of the 2023 NCAA college football season when they host the NC State Wolfpack at Scott Stadium on Friday. It's each of these schools' first ACC game of the season, upping the stake of the latest NC State vs Virginia showdown.

The Pack is on the MOVE!

Next stop: Virginia pic.twitter.com/NtcPpkYEra

— NC State Football (@PackFootball) September 21, 2023

NC State returned to the win column with a 45-7 win over VMI last week that saw the Wolfpack rack up three rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, victory continues to elude Virginia as it comes off a 42-14 thumping at the hands of Maryland.

Can NC State win back-to-back games for the first time this season? Or will Virginia put its skid in the rearview with a strong effort at home?

Keep reading for a preview of tonight's NC State vs. Virginia matchup, featuring the latest NCAAF Week 4 odds and the best betting options for the ACC collision.

NC State vs Virginia Tonight (Sept. 22)

NCSU vs UVA Game Information

• Matchup: NC State Wolfpack (2-1, 0-0 ACC) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (0-3, 0-0 ACC)
• Venue & Location: Scott Stadium (Charlottesville, VA)
• Date: Friday, Sept. 22, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• NC State vs. Virginia TV Channel: ESPN

NC State vs Virginia Odds

NCAAF game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, Sept. 22 at 8:45 a.m. ET from. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• NC State Wolfpack -8.5 (-110)
• Virginia Cavaliers +8.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 48 Points (-105)
• Under 48 Points (-115)

Moneyline

• NC State Wolfpack -360
• Virginia Cavaliers +280

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Now, back to tonight's showdown.

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NC State vs Virginia Betting Trends

• NC State is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Virginia.
• Virginia is 1-8 straight up in its last nine ACC matchups.
• NC State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine ACC matchups.
• Virginia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in September.
• The total has hit the Under in four of NC State's last six games.
• The total has hit the Under in four of Virginia's last five home games against NC State.

NC State vs Virginia Week 4 Game Preview

Tonight's game marks the first time in three years that NC State and Virginia are facing off. The ACC rivals last collided in 2020 at Scott Stadium, resulting in a 38-21 victory for the Wolfpack.

That meeting was the latest example of NC State getting the best of Virginia. The Wolfpack have now won four of the last five games in this rivalry, outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 12.5 points in those victories.

Things looking promising for NC State this time around, too, given how bad the opposition's defense has looked. Although it's a small sample size, there isn't much to like about Virginia allowing 451.7 total yards (22nd-most in NCAAF) and 42.3 points (T-13th-most) per game.

The Cavaliers truly struggle to defend the run game, allowing 191.0 rushing yards per contest (22nd-most) and 4.9 yards per carry. That's not exactly good news considering that the Wolfpack average 146.5 rushing yards per game (No. 62) and have already racked up seven TDs on the ground.

Considering how NC State also scored 45 points last week, I don't see it having issues finding the end zone tonight. Virginia gave up 36 points in its last home game and has allowed NCSU to score 35+ points in both of their last two encounters.

It's also hard trusting Virginia when it has lost eight of its last nine ACC matchups as well as five straight home games. NC State is far from perfect, but I trust Dave Doeren's team to take advantage of these trends.

NC State vs Virginia Prediction Week 4

Nothing about Virginia's play this season suggests that it can pull off the upset. The defense has too many holes that NC State will exploit, especially on the ground. The Wolfpack will get off to a huge lead early before turning to their gifted ground game to run out the clock.

Prediction: NC State 34, Virginia 23 — NC State -8.5 (-110 on Bovada)

NC State vs Virginia Best Bet

As for the best NC State vs. Virginia bet, let's go with Wolfpack QB Brennan Armstrong rushing for over 35.5 yards.

Armstrong isn't afraid to use his legs, as proven by his rushing for 161 yards on 37 carries this season. He's hit the Over on this prop twice in three games thus far and I see him determined to do it again against a Virginia team that he spent 2018 to 2022 with.

Given the Cavaliers' suspect run defense, hitting the Over again won't be a problem.

Bet: Brennan Armstrong Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on Bovada)

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More Betting Content

How can I bet on NC State vs Virginia?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have NCAAF odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for college football enthusiasts.

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