Is it too late to bet on Drake Maye to win the NFL MVP?
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- Matthew Stafford +300 –> +125
- Drake Maye +300 –> +150
- Jonathan Taylor +450 –> +700
- Josh Allen +700 –> +1200
- Patrick Mahomes +600 –> +2000
- Jalen Hurts +1800 –> +2800
Previous odds are from Monday, November 10, 2025
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The MVP race has stayed steady between three players over the last few weeks. Those players are Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. I have been very vocal about how difficult this award is for non-quarterbacks. I am also holding an 18 to 1 ticket on Taylor to win this award, and even I know he must break multiple records to have any real shot. Those records are the touchdown record and the rushing yards record. That is how unfair this award is to position players.
My focus has shifted to this week because Drake Maye and the Patriots have a very favorable schedule in the coming weeks. This Sunday he faces the second worst pass defense in the league. After that, they host the Giants, then the Bills, and then travel to Baltimore. Afterward, they face the Jets and host the Dolphins to close out the season. Four of the Patriots next six games are spots where Maye could do significant damage against weak defenses.
This week I like the over on his passing yards at 249.5, but it makes me think. Should I take him to win the MVP award if I expect him to continue stacking big performances? His prop is only +150, and the likely narrative will be that the award should go to Stafford due to age and longevity. Do I agree? No. I also want Taylor to win for the sake of the award meaning something again.
For those reading this, the over on Maye's yards is absolutely in play with the Bengals defense allowing teams to do whatever they want through the air.
However, the Rams schedule in the coming weeks has potential for Stafford to do some damage to separate himself in the odds. Starting with a matchup against Tampa Bay this week. After that, they travel to Carolina and Arizona, host Detroit, go to Seattle, and finish at Atlanta.
Where is the Value?
With it being Week 13, I think this race stays between the first three names listed. I have zero interest in investing in Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. The guys ahead of them have had far greater seasons. If you have yet to invest in this market, sprinkle the longshot in Taylor and take either Maye or Stafford, depending on how you view the narrative. Will it be the veteran or the rising star?
