Chasing Six — NFL Expert Anytime Touchdown Picks & Predictions (10/11)

Happy Week 5. We've officially reached the point in the NFL season where bye weeks start and we're no longer being treated to full slates. Regardless, we've got a ton of good games and even more touchdowns I've got on my radar.

I've got 3 guys to get in the endzone this week, let's get into it.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

Today's Touchdowns

• Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+150)
• Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+165)
• Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+220)

Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+150) | Lucky Rebel

I can't talk enough about how bad this Detroit Lions defense is. The Lions rank 30th in points allowed, 31st in opponent redzone efficiency, 32nd in pass yards allowed, 32nd in opponent third down conversion rate and 32nd in first downs allowed.

Detroit's given up 7 touchdowns through the air in the redzone and while 5 of those have to TEs, this week's matchup with Michael Wilson should prove to be tough.

Both Wilson and Trey McBride lead the Cardinals with 8 redzone targets each and the only guys with more redzone targets than those two are Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Wilson's seen 5 targets from within the 10-yard line and 3 targets in the actual endzone. Somehow he's still scored just once this year.

Detroit's running single-hi at a top-10 rate this year and that's a coverage shell we've seen Wilson dominate. Against single-hi this year, Wilson's averaging 0.36 targets per route run; 4th highest in the NFL.

Lastly, Detroit's giving up a ton of production to receivers lining up on the right side. Wilson's splitting his time on both sides, but anytime he's open down the sidelines; Brissett's throwing it up there.

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Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+165) | Lucky Rebel

With a total this high, of course I've got another touchdown scorer in this one.

Sam LaPorta is playing on a 1-year deal and if you know anything about the NFL, you know how rare that is. LaPorta and the team couldn't come to an agreement before the season began, so LaPorta decided he didn't want to negotiate in season and since then he's been lights out.

LaPorta is second on the team in target share, catching 22 of his 28 targets for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns so far. The thing with LaPorta is that, near the endzone is where he comes alive.

LaPorta's target share jumps to 24% in the redzone, he's got 8 targets down here and 6 targets have come from within 10 yards. He's seen a 40% target share from inside the 10-yard line and it's because of his connection with QB, Jared Goff.

Last year LaPorta saw a 25.7% target share in the redzone, the Lions averaged 24.8 points per game with him out of the lineup; but 31.7 with him in the lineup. LaPorta's got a huge role in this offense and when he's out there, that's when the Lions are at their best.

Goff's been targeting him heavily in the redzone so far this year and I expect that to continue against Arizona. The Cardinals have given up 4 touchdowns in the redzone to opposing TEs and I think this week LaPorta adds to the tally.

Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+220) | Lucky Rebel

Tucker Kraft finally got into the endzone last week. I'd be happier if he hadn't dropped his first endzone target of the day, but I'll take it. Kraft's been mediocre since returning and he'd be the first to admit.

He leads all TEs in dropped passes, tied for the league lead actually; he's yet to have a big impact in any one of these games and the Packers' offense needs him to step up.

Kraft has thrived against man defense in his career. Going back to last year, Kraft ranks 3rd in yards per route run agains man coverage (3.44), he's averaging 0.29 targets per route run and he ranks 7th in FP/route run against man.

Kraft's ability after the catch is why he performs so well against man coverage and this week back in front of the home crowd after being boo'd two weeks ago; it feels right.

Love's also been incredible against man coverage. Since he was drafted in 2023, Love's thrown the 2nd most passing touchdowns against man coverage (46), second only to last year's MVP; Matthew Stafford.

We've got a total at 46.5 for a divisional game in Green Bay. We've got the spread sitting at close to a pick em and sun shining tomorrow at Lambeau Field.

Tucker Kraft just feels right.

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