Chasing Six — NFL Expert Anytime Touchdown Picks & Predictions (10/18)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sun Oct 18, 2026, 7:30 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
It's time. It's time to talk touchdowns for Week 6 and this week's slate has me excited. We've got 4 totals in the 50s, good weather and even a few dome games sprinkled in.
Week 6 kicks off with an early game out in London and while I'll be staying off it (officially), both Marvin Harrison Jr. (+500) and Trevor Lawrence (+420) look like fun long(-ish) shots.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Today's Touchdowns
- Ashton Jeanty 1H Touchdown (+200)
- Jalen Coker Anytime Touchdown (+260)
- Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown (+380)
Ashton Jeanty 1H Touchdown (+200) | Lucky Rebel
It's not often I bet first half touchdown scorers, but the value on his anytime touchdown just wasn't there. Ashton Jeanty is seeing a ton of volume, he just hasn't been able to do a ton with it. He's averaging 17.6 carries per game, 3.3 yards per carry and just 58.3 rush yards per game.
Jeanty's playing 71.4% of the snaps this year, he's seeing 70.4% of the designated carry share and he's the only RB in this backfield involved in the pass game.
Jeanty is seeing a 16.7% target share this year, 2nd only to Brock Bowers and it's why he's averaging 43.0 receiving yards per game. He's playing 74.5% of the snaps inside the 20-yard line, seeing 76.2% of the designated carries it only gets better the closer they get to the goal line.
From within 10 yards, Jeanty's playing 82% of the snaps and sees 80% of the carries. When the Raiders get within 5, it jumps to 90.9% and 87.5%, respectively.
The Bills have given up 8 redzone touchdowns to opposing RBs this year, 5 on the ground and 3 through the air. Buffalo's giving up the 2nd most redone opportunities per game this year and they've been terrible against opposing RBs.
The Bills allow the 4th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs and like I said, Jeanty's been heavily involved through the air. Jeanty's got 6 redzone targets, 16 redzone carries, 8 carries from inside the 10 and 9 carries with goal to go. Yet, he's scored just twice; both times through the air.
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Jalen Coker Anytime Touchdown (+260) | Lucky Rebel
Let's start off with one of my favorite breakouts this year, Jalen Coker. Coker and the Panthers are coming off their bye week and the time off really helped him heal. He's averaging 74.0, he's caught 18 of his 22 targets and he's got 2 touchdowns.
Coker's got an 18% target share this year but that's because of time he's missed with injury. When he's on the field, Coker's seeing a 32% target share and leads the team with 2.61 yards per route run.
In the redzone, nothing changes. When on the field, Coker's seeing a 29.4% target share in the redzone and a 26.7% 1st read target share. He's got the 12th best separation score from inside the 20-yard line and the Eagles have been so bad covering the slot.
The Eagles rank 2nd last in yards allowed to receivers out of the slot, they've given up 5 touchdowns to the slot and they've just struggled to cover the spot in general. Philly gives up the 3rd most opponent redzone opportunities per game and Coker leads the Panthers with 4 targets from inside the 10-yard line.
Cooper DeJean is taking all of the Eagles snaps at nickel and he's been bad. He's been targeted 26 times, allowing 17 catches for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's allowing a passer rating of 112.3 when targeted and I don't see why that would change this week.
Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown (+380) | Lucky Rebel
Najee Harris' volume near the goal line can't be ignored.
In his last 3 games, Harris is playing just 19.2% of the snaps, he's seeing 28% of the carries and he's been the most productive of the Giants trio; averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
What really peaked my interest about Harris was his redzone volume. In the 4 games he's played for the Giants, Harris is playing 46.4% of the redzone snaps, seeing 46.7% of the team's designated carries and he's got the same amount of carries from inside the 10-yard line as Cam Skattebo.
The Saints have given up 10 touchdowns to opposing RBs this year and all 10 have come via the ground. New Orleans ranks last in rush yards allowed to opposing RBs, they're giving up the 3rd most yards per carry to opposing RBs and they are dead last in opponent redzone attempts per game.
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